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Bitcoin could reach $644,000 by its next halving in April 2028 if it captures half of gold’s market capitalization, according to VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel.
The prediction comes as gold futures surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, with Sigel arguing that Bitcoin increasingly serves the same store-of-value function as gold, particularly among younger investors.
In an X post on Monday, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, wrote:
“We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving.”
Sigel noted that with gold futures exceeding $4,000 per ounce for the first time which is a new record high as Bitcoin’s “equivalent value” would now stand at about $644,000, if it captured half of gold’s total market capitalization.
The Bitcoin price prediction arrives amid a wave of global uncertainty, as investors continue to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs, and a weakening U.S. dollar.
According to MarketWatch, gold prices have gained nearly 50% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has climbed past $126,000, marking a new all-time high but still lagging behind gold’s relative performance.
Sigel argued that Bitcoin’s core use case now mirrors gold’s traditional role as a store of value, but with one critical difference as it’s more appealing to younger generations.
“Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand,” said Sigel. “Surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role.” — Matthew Sigel, VanEck, via X.
This generational divide is not new, but it’s widening. Analyst Jordi Visser, President of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, said in a June report that younger investors increasingly view the existing financial system as “worsening every single year.”
Their appetite for risk and demand for digital assets could sustain Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, Jordi Visser, Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, in a CNBC interview.
This aligns with a broader Bitcoin price prediction trend that sees digital assets becoming the store of value of choice for Millennials and Gen Z demographics that have largely bypassed gold as an investment vehicle.
While gold has reached new all-time highs, some analysts believe the rally may still have room to run but not without caution.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that gold’s meteoric rise could continue before any meaningful pullback.
Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction, Brandt wrote in an X post.
How much higher? No clue! But I am quite certain that ‘all-in’ FOMO buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future. Peter Brandt, Veteran Trader.
The momentum in gold markets has indirectly influenced Bitcoin, which hit a new all-time high above $126,000 on Monday. However, critics argue that Bitcoin still has room to go before achieving parity with gold in real terms.
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management and a long-time Bitcoin skeptic, noted that despite the new dollar-denominated record, Bitcoin remains about 15% below its previous peak when measured against gold.
Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148,000 to match its record high priced in gold, Schiff said in a post. Until Bitcoin can make a new high priced in gold, it’s just a bear market rally.
Schiff’s stance remains in sharp contrast to the Bitcoin price prediction issued by analysts like Sigel, who see Bitcoin eventually closing that valuation gap as institutional adoption accelerates.
Not all analysts agree on the same timeframe, but some are even more optimistic. Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, a Bitcoin custody firm, recently stated that gold’s surge has effectively lifted Bitcoin’s fair value floor.
Bitcoin’s fair value floor has been lifted to $1.34 million with gold’s rise, Joe Consorti, Theya, in a statement to Decrypt.
Consorti’s view underscores a growing belief among crypto investors that the Bitcoin price prediction models based solely on historical cycles may underestimate the impact of macroeconomic shifts particularly in light of rising debt levels, inflationary policies, and renewed institutional interest.
Meanwhile, the next Bitcoin halving, expected in April 2028, remains a key milestone for investors watching the cryptocurrency’s long-term supply dynamics. Historically, each halving which reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance by half has preceded significant bull markets, often driving Bitcoin’s price to new highs within 12 to 18 months.
With gold’s record-setting momentum and Bitcoin’s strengthening fundamentals, analysts believe the stage may be set for the cryptocurrency to narrow its valuation gap with the world’s oldest store of value.
Bitcoin is becoming digital gold not because of hype, but because it’s proving resilient in the same conditions that make gold shine, Matthew Sigel, VanEck.
While opinions differ, the broader message across Wall Street and crypto research desks is clear: Bitcoin’s competition with gold is no longer hypothetical as it’s unfolding in real time.
If the Bitcoin price prediction of $644,000 comes true by 2028, it would mark a defining moment in monetary history as a digital asset reaching parity with a millennia-old store of wealth.
Whether driven by generational shifts, macroeconomic turbulence, or institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s trajectory toward gold’s market cap may redefine what investors consider “safe” in the digital era.
