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Bitcoin price slipped lower on Oct. 16, testing key support around $111,000 as Spot BTC ETF outflow resumed after a brief return to inflows. As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading close to $111,673, down 8% over the previous week and 0.5% over the previous day. Trading volume has fallen sharply to $66.2 billion a drop of more than 27% in a single day suggesting that market participation is thinning.
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin open interest decreased slightly to $72 billion, while derivatives volume dropped 35.5% to $92.5 billion. This combination typically indicates that traders are closing leveraged positions and waiting for clearer signals before re-entering the market a sentiment reinforced by the Spot BTC ETF outflow trend.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. Spot BTC ETF outflow reached $94 million on Oct. 15 led by Grayscale’s GBTC with $82.9 million withdrawn. Invesco and BlackRock followed with smaller outflows.
After nine straight sessions of inflows, ETFs saw their first major redemptions on Oct. 13. The latest Spot BTC ETF outflow followed net inflows of $102.6 million on Oct. 14 underscoring that institutional appetite remains cautious and reactive to short term price movements.
Analysts note that recurring Spot BTC ETF outflow patterns often coincide with reduced liquidity and weaker buying momentum, creating temporary resistance to price recovery.
There was a notable rise in short term bearish activity in the Bitcoin options market in Data from Greeks.live. With strike prices ranging from $104,000 to $108,000 put options made up 28% of all trading volume.
Since longer term metrics remain neutral and traders are hedging against short term downside, this indicates temporary caution rather than a structural bearish shift. Still, ongoing Spot BTC ETF outflow adds to the broader narrative of cautious sentiment in derivatives markets.
In the medium term, macro conditions remain somewhat supportive. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Oct. 14 bolstered expectations of a rate cut at the end of the month. Lower rates could boost liquidity and favor risk assets like Bitcoin potentially offsetting the effects of sustained Spot BTC ETF outflow trends.
Yet, growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China as well as tariff increases present possible obstacles keeping risk sentiment fragile and contributing indirectly to the current Spot BTC ETF outflow cycle.
Bitcoin continues to trade within the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart consolidating close to its short term support between $110,000 and $111,000. At 42, the relative strength index (RSI) indicates neutral momentum but is moving closer to oversold territory.
With the stochastic oscillator at 13, the market appears to have cooled rapidly and may be about to undergo a short term reversal if buying pressure returns. However, continued Spot BTC ETF outflow could delay that recovery.
The lack of buyer follow through after the early October rally to $126,000 is reflected in momentum and MACD readings which remain negative. Still, the long term structure is intact with the simple and exponential 200 day moving averages hovering around $107,000 an essential safety net for bulls watching Spot BTC ETF outflow data closely.
A rebound from this zone could push prices back toward resistance around $114,000–$116,000, where the mid Bollinger Band currently sits. However, a drop below $110,000 would expose Bitcoin to a more severe decline possibly reaching $104,000bespecially if Spot BTC ETF outflow accelerates further in the coming days.
