Polymarket beats 85% of crypto protocols in user retention as prediction markets explode 150x

Prediction markets are retaining users longer than 85% of all crypto protocols—including major DeFi platforms, wallets, and centralized exchanges—as monthly active users exploded from 4,000 to 612,000 over the past two years, according to new data from Dune Analytics.

Polymarket alone has processed 95 million trades while the sector’s monthly volume surged from under $100 million to more than $13 billion, a 130-fold increase that researchers say is driven by sustained engagement rather than speculative hype.

Retention Backed by Explosive Growth

The surge in market retention is closely tied to massive growth in market activity over the past two years.

Monthly notional trading volume across prediction platforms has ballooned from under $100 million to more than $13 billion, marking a jaw-dropping 130-fold increase.

Since early 2024, prediction markets have experienced dramatic expansion in both participation and transaction count.

Total transactions surged from roughly 240,000 to over 43 million, while monthly active users jumped from 4,000 to more than 612,000 — a 150-fold increase that few crypto sectors can match.

Dune Analytics researchers noted that sustained user engagement — not short-term hype — is what sets prediction market apart from DeFi yield farms and speculative NFT cycles.

Polymarket Dominates Prediction Market Retention Metrics

Polymarket has emerged as the undisputed leader driving market retention. Over the observed period, the platform processed approximately 95 million trades, accounting for 54% of cumulative market activity across the sector.

Monthly trades on Polymarket surged from just 45,000 to nearly 19 million, with pronounced spikes surrounding major global events — most notably between the 2024 US presidential election and October 2025.

Prediction markets benefit from real-world relevance, Dune Analytics explained in its report. That connection significantly improves retention compared to abstract DeFi products.

Category-Based Markets Fuel Prediction Market Retention

A closer look at category performance reveals why prediction market retention remains so resilient.

On Polymarket, sports accounted for 39% of volume, followed by politics at 34% and crypto at 18%, together representing roughly 90% of total notional volume.

Kalshi, by contrast, remains heavily sports-focused, with 85% of its volume tied to sports markets. However, emerging categories are gaining traction.

Economics volume surged 10x on Polymarket and 905% on Kalshi, while tech and science markets jumped 1,700% on Polymarket alone.

Open interest growth was led by economics (up 700%) and social and culture markets (up 600%), reinforcing the stickiness that underpins prediction market retention.

Prediction Market Retention Has Deep Academic Roots

The resurgence of prediction market retention is not accidental. Dune Analytics traces its origins back to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), launched in 1988 by University of Iowa economists.

The real-money platform famously outperformed traditional polling in roughly 75% of US presidential elections, often weeks before election day.

In the early 2000s, the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADEX) became the first CFTC-regulated prediction market offering contracts tied to economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index.

NADEX later became part of Crypto.com following its 2022 acquisition, helping cement a compliant foundation for modern prediction markets.

Elections Spark Demand — Retention Keeps Users

During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket and Kalshi generated more than $4.5 billion in monthly trading volume, with Polymarket capturing 93% of that activity.

While volumes cooled to $1.5–$2 billion monthly after the election, prediction market retention remained strong.

By mid-2025, both platforms expanded beyond political betting, forming partnerships with Google Finance, CNN, CNBC, Yahoo, Robinhood, the UFC, and the NHL, pushing prediction markets deeper into finance, sports, and entertainment.

As Dune Analytics concluded, “Retention — not speculation — is becoming the defining metric of crypto’s next cycle.” And by that measure, prediction market retention may be one of the industry’s most bullish — and disruptive — success stories.