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Cboe Global Markets is in early-stage discussions with retail brokerages to relaunch binary options contracts, positioning the exchange as a regulated alternative to cryptocurrency-based prediction markets like Polymarket, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
The potential product revival comes as decentralized prediction platforms have surged in popularity for event-based speculation, from elections to economic data, drawing millions in trading volume outside traditional regulatory frameworks.
Cboe Global Markets previously exited the binary options space, but the explosive rise of the crypto prediction market appears to have changed that calculus.
Sources cited by the Wall Street Journal say the exchange is exploring fixed-return contracts that pay either a set cash amount or nothing at all—an almost identical structure to prediction market wagers on platforms like Polymarket.
Cboe confirmed the discussions, calling them “at an early stage,” while emphasizing that any product revival would involve extensive regulatory scrutiny.
The exchange is also reportedly working with market makers to redesign binary options so they appeal to retail traders while staying within U.S. compliance frameworks.
The renewed interest from Cboe highlights a broader regulatory tension sparked by the crypto prediction market boom.
Polymarket, which operates primarily outside the U.S., has surged in popularity by allowing users to speculate on elections, economic data, and geopolitical outcomes using crypto rails.
That growth has not gone unnoticed by regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously raised concerns about event-based contracts, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to debate how similar products should be classified.
By contrast, Cboe’s strategy leans heavily on regulatory legitimacy.
“This represents, in my view, a new entry point for many individuals looking to engage in the options market,” a Cboe executive told Yahoo Finance, adding that any launch would undergo “rigorous evaluations to ensure compliance with legal standards” under SEC or CFTC oversight.
The appeal of the crypto prediction market lies in its clarity. Traders know exactly what they stand to gain or lose, and contracts settle quickly around real-world events.
That simplicity has attracted younger, digitally native traders who might otherwise avoid traditional derivatives.
For Cboe, reviving binary options could recapture that audience—without pushing them toward offshore crypto platforms.
Analysts say this reflects a growing recognition that regulated exchanges must innovate or risk losing relevance to decentralized alternatives.
“Prediction markets have demonstrated real demand for event-driven speculation,” said Chris Perkins, president of CoinFund, in previous commentary on the sector.
“Traditional markets are now realizing they ignored this at their own risk.”
If Cboe proceeds, it would mark one of the clearest examples yet of TradFi directly responding to crypto prediction market disruption.
While Polymarket benefits from global access and on-chain settlement, Cboe would compete on trust, compliance, and brokerage integration.
Still, challenges remain. Binary options carry historical baggage, including past associations with fraud in unregulated markets.
Cboe will need to convince both regulators and investors that a modern reboot is fundamentally different.
Cboe has not provided a timeline for launch, and insiders caution that regulatory approval is far from guaranteed.
However, the discussions alone signal a critical shift: the crypto prediction market is no longer being dismissed—it’s being copied.
As election cycles, macro uncertainty, and geopolitical risks dominate headlines, demand for event-based trading is only growing.
Whether through decentralized platforms like Polymarket or regulated giants like Cboe, the crypto prediction market thesis is proving too powerful for Wall Street to ignore.
