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Bitcoin’s historical tendency to rally in November—gaining an average of 42.5% over the past 12 years, according to CoinGlass data—has prompted some analysts to forecast potential six-figure prices this month, though such projections remain highly speculative.
The optimism comes despite October’s volatility and is based on a combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts, improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, and seasonal patterns that have seen Bitcoin post double-digit gains in seven of the last ten Novembers.
However, crypto analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future results, and Bitcoin remains subject to extreme volatility regardless of historical trends.
According to market data tracked by CoinGlass, November has consistently been Bitcoin’s strongest month for over a decade. In fact, Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains in seven of the last ten Novembers.
“Seasonal charts absolutely matter — but they must be analyzed alongside broader economic factors,” said Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, in an interview with Bloomberg. “With interest rate expectations and improving trade talks, the macro setup looks favorable for Bitcoin.”
This aligns with the sentiment across the crypto market, where analysts say Bitcoin price prediction models remain highly optimistic heading into November.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest move has intensified discussions around the next Bitcoin price prediction cycle. Just days ago, Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, dropping the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
Market data from CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are now pricing in a 63% probability of an additional rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for December 10, 2025.
“Lower interest rates are like fuel for risk assets, Bitcoin thrives in a low-rate environment,” said Michael van de Poppe, CEO of MN Trading, in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “If the Fed continues easing, my Bitcoin price prediction points toward the $160K region before year-end.”
Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell added nuance, saying that further cuts are “not a foregone conclusion,” which keeps markets on their toes — but the broader implication remains bullish for Bitcoin’s momentum.
Another major factor shaping Bitcoin price prediction this month is the thawing relationship between the United States and China. A recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea was seen as a constructive step toward easing trade tensions.
Trump described the discussions as “amazing,” with partial agreements reached on tariffs, soybean imports, and fentanyl regulations. While these developments provide a short-term boost to market confidence, experts warn that underlying frictions remain.
“This was a pause, not peace,” said Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow in its China Initiative, in a statement to CBC News. “The U.S.-China trade war is far from over.”
Nevertheless, even a temporary pause in trade hostilities can create a ripple effect in global markets — including crypto. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied during periods of improved U.S. – China trade sentiment, further fueling bullish Bitcoin price predictions.
While optimism is returning, traders are reminded that volatility remains part of the game. The October crypto crash, triggered by tariff threats and resulting in $19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, is still fresh in memory.
However, the subsequent stabilization — combined with expected monetary easing — suggests that Bitcoin could recover swiftly. “Crypto has always been resilient,” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “Seasonality, policy, and positioning are aligning for another potential November rally, which fits with bullish Bitcoin price predictions.”
As November unfolds, Bitcoin price prediction models are flashing green across multiple indicators — historical performance, monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical calm all align in Bitcoin’s favor.
If patterns repeat, Bitcoin could once again prove its cyclical strength, pushing toward $160,000 or beyond. While no forecast is guaranteed, the combination of strong historical data and macro tailwinds gives traders every reason to keep an eye on the charts this month.
With the right blend of optimism and caution, November 2025 could mark another landmark chapter in Bitcoin’s history — one that cements this month’s reputation as its most powerful season for growth.
