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U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $1.13 billion in net outflows over three trading days this week, nearly erasing the $1.16 billion in inflows recorded during the first two sessions of 2026 and sending Bitcoin below $90,000.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began the year with explosive momentum, pulling in more than $1 billion over the first two trading sessions.
At the time, analysts pointed to renewed institutional risk appetite and improving sentiment toward digital assets. That narrative, however, has unraveled just as quickly.
According to data from Farside Investors, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States have collectively posted net outflows of roughly $1.128 billion over the past three trading days. The reversal has effectively neutralized the $1.16 billion inflow recorded at the start of the year, leaving year-to-date flows almost flat and casting doubt on sustained Bitcoin ETF optimism.
The rapid shift underscores how fragile Bitcoin ETF optimism can be when broader macroeconomic conditions tighten. Rather than signaling long-term accumulation, recent ETF flows suggest tactical positioning by institutions that remain sensitive to short-term risks.
“ETF flows paint a tactical picture, with periods of inflows followed by modest outflows,” Vikram Subburaj, chief executive officer of India-based crypto exchange Giottus, told CoinDesk. “This indicates rotation rather than conviction buying.”
Subburaj added that macroeconomic uncertainty has dampened risk appetite across markets. “The broader risk-off sentiment has seeped into crypto alongside equity markets,” he said, a dynamic that has directly pressured Bitcoin ETF optimism.
Bitcoin’s price action has mirrored the shift in sentiment. After touching highs above $94,600 earlier in the week, BTC slid back toward the $90,000 level as ETF outflows mounted. At one point on Thursday, prices dipped below $89,300, according to CoinDesk data.
The pullback has not been isolated to Bitcoin. CoinDesk Indices tracking memecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens have also retreated from recent highs, reinforcing the sense that Bitcoin ETF optimism alone is not enough to offset a broader market cooldown.
Market participants say the speed of the reversal highlights lingering uncertainty around institutional demand. While ETFs have made Bitcoin more accessible to traditional investors, flows remain highly responsive to macro signals rather than purely crypto-native fundamentals.
Looking ahead, analysts expect volatility to increase as traders brace for key U.S. economic data and legal developments that could influence risk assets. A major focus is the release of the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for Friday at 13:30 UTC.
According to FactSet estimates, the U.S. economy is expected to have added around 55,000 jobs in December, down from 64,000 in November and below the 12-month average of nearly 78,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge down slightly to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise 3.6% year-on-year.
“A softer U.S. labor backdrop could support risk assets, while resilient employment data may keep crypto and broader markets range-bound into the week’s close,” said Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch.
For Bitcoin, the data could determine whether Bitcoin ETF optimism finds renewed footing or continues to fade. Despite its reputation as “digital gold,” Bitcoin has historically tracked technology stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, making it sensitive to shifts in interest rate expectations.
The flat year-to-date ETF flows suggest institutions remain hesitant to make large directional bets. While ETFs provide a regulated gateway to Bitcoin exposure, they have not yet delivered consistent inflows that would signal durable Bitcoin ETF optimism.
Some analysts argue that the early-January inflows may have reflected portfolio rebalancing rather than genuine bullish conviction. As balance sheets adjusted and macro uncertainty resurfaced, those positions were quickly unwound.
“The lack of follow-through after such a strong start is telling,” said one digital asset strategist at a U.S. investment firm. “It suggests investors are still waiting for clearer signals before committing fresh capital.”
Beyond labor data, traders are also monitoring a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which could influence inflation expectations and broader market sentiment. Any outcome that tightens financial conditions could further pressure risk assets and weigh on Bitcoin ETF optimism.
Conversely, dovish economic signals or easing geopolitical concerns could reignite flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, especially if BTC stabilizes above key technical levels.
For now, however, the market appears stuck between competing narratives: long-term confidence in Bitcoin as an institutional asset and short-term caution driven by macroeconomic headwinds.
The recent outflow streak marks one of the first major tests for spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026. While the products have proven their ability to attract capital quickly, sustaining inflows remains the bigger challenge.
As Bitcoin ETF optimism fluctuates, investors are learning that ETF adoption alone does not guarantee steady upside. Instead, flows are increasingly intertwined with global liquidity, interest rate expectations, and broader risk sentiment.
Whether Bitcoin ETFs regain momentum or remain range-bound in the coming weeks will likely depend less on crypto-specific developments and more on the macro signals shaping markets worldwide. For now, Bitcoin ETF optimism has dimmed—but it has not disappeared.
