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Wall Street analysts are sharply divided on bitcoin’s path through 2026, with price targets ranging from $100,000 to $185,000, as the market weighs surging ETF demand against macroeconomic uncertainty and slowing corporate accumulation.
Standard Chartered recently slashed its year-end 2025 bitcoin target from $200,000 to $100,000, citing waning buying pressure from corporate treasuries and reduced institutional accumulation. The bank now projects bitcoin will reach approximately $150,000 by the end of 2026.
The revision reflects growing uncertainty after bitcoin’s sharp rally earlier this year. The cryptocurrency has more than doubled in 2024, jumping from around $42,000 in January to above $106,000 in December before pulling back to current levels near $95,000.
Other forecasters remain more optimistic. Citi maintains a 12-month target of $143,000, driven primarily by continued inflows into newly approved spot bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted over $30 billion in assets since launching in January 2024.
Bitcoin has more than doubled since the start of 2024, with a sharp acceleration in gains following the U.S. presidential election. Prices jumped by roughly 45% in the two weeks after the vote, as markets priced in expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under President Donald Trump.
That rally has reinforced Bitcoin’s status as part of the so-called Trump trade, alongside equities and assets seen as beneficiaries of looser regulation and fiscal expansion.
At the same time, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving which cut the block reward paid to miners has tightened new supply entering the market, historically a bullish catalyst over medium-to-long time horizons.
“Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are unmatched,” — Cathie Wood, CEO, Ark Invest, said in a recent interview. “When you combine the halving with accelerating institutional demand through spot ETFs, the long-term price potential becomes very compelling.”
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved earlier in the year, have opened the door for pension funds, asset managers, and conservative investors who previously avoided direct exposure to crypto. Analysts widely see these products as a key driver of demand through 2025 and beyond.
Analyst forecasts for bitcoin in 2026 highlight a divergence rarely seen in traditional asset classes. Some Wall Street models remain optimistic, while others have tempered expectations in the face of recent volatility.
For example, Citi’s research team projects a 12-month target of around $143,000, viewing ETF adoption as a principal driver of future BTC demand.
According to reports from Marketwatch Standard Chartered has notably scaled back its outlook, lowering its year-end 2025 target from $200,000 to $100,000 and revising 2026 projections to around $150,000. The bank cited waning buying pressure from DATs and reduced institutional accumulation as key factors in its revision.
Geoffrey Kendrick stated that recent price action in bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least, and global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, in a client note.
With the current state of Bitcoin’s price instability, it reflects fundamental uncertainty in crypto markets. Technical analysts point to resistance and support levels that could determine BTC’s near-term trajectory, with key zones like $110,000 to $113,000 identified as pivotal for sustained bullish momentum.
A core narrative among bullish forecasts remains the influence of regulated ETF capital flows. Spot bitcoin ETFs approved by regulators in the U.S. have unlocked access for institutional and retail capital alike, with ETF assets under management projected to continue expanding.
Sourced from TMGM, the increased ETF participation is widely cited as a stabilizing feature, potentially smoothing out some of bitcoin’s historic volatility.
Regulatory clarity has also played a role in investor confidence. Clearer guidelines around digital asset custody, KYC/AML compliance, and exchange listing standards are enabling a broader range of traditional money managers to acquire BTC exposure.
“Regulatory progress is a necessary precursor to sustained institutional adoption, ”said Marcus Li, Founder of Horizon Crypto Research. “Without it, capital flows remain tentative and episodic.”
Macro trends also shape bitcoin’s outlook. With the post-2025 halving reducing miner issuance, some analysts believe supply dynamics could tighten over time, potentially supporting prices if demand continues to grow.
However, broader macroeconomic indicators such as interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions remain sources of risk that could dampen future gains.
