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Bitcoin has rebounded to $86,783 after briefly falling to $80,600 on Friday—its lowest level since mid-April and a 36% decline from October’s all-time high above $126,000—as the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December surged from 30% to 70% in just two days.
Analysts at wealth management firm Swissblock said selling pressure has eased significantly and their proprietary Risk-Off Signal is “dropping sharply,” suggesting the worst of the downturn may be over.
The shift in Fed rate expectations, tracked by CME’s FedWatch Tool at 69.3% odds for a December cut, has historically supported Bitcoin rallies and is fueling optimism about a sustained recovery.
Bitcoin’s sharp reversal from last week’s lows triggered renewed excitement among traders who believe a meaningful Bitcoin price recovery may be underway.
According to Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards, the recent downturn in both tech stocks and crypto was driven by “the market flip-flopping on expectations for a rate cut.”
In a Monday post on X, Edwards added:
“As the market reverts, expect it will carry Bitcoin somewhat higher.” Charles Edwards, Founder, Capriole Fund
Analysts at wealth-management firm Swissblock echoed this view, arguing that Bitcoin BTC at $86,783 is showing its “first real step toward forming a bottom.”
Swissblock emphasized that the firm’s proprietary Risk-Off Signal is “dropping sharply,” a key indicator that selling anxieties are easing—a critical catalyst for any sustained Bitcoin price recovery.
“Selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is likely behind us.” Swissblock Research Team
Despite improving indicators, Swissblock noted that major bottoms often include a secondary decline—typically weaker than the first—that ultimately strengthens the reliability of a reversal pattern.
“That second wave usually marks seller exhaustion and a shift in control back toward the bulls.” Swissblock Analysts
This dynamic is frequently observed in cyclical crypto corrections and is seen as a historically reliable trigger for a full Bitcoin price recovery.
Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin briefly dropping to $80,600 on Coinbase—its deepest fall since mid-April—marking a 36% correction from the all-time high above $126,000 set in early October.
Macroeconomic tailwinds are further boosting confidence in a Bitcoin price recovery, particularly as rate-cut probabilities shift sharply upward.
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December had slipped to around 30% last week, but has since surged back to 70%, according to Edwards.
CME’s FedWatch Tool currently reflects 69.3% odds of a 0.25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 10 meeting—an environment historically supportive of Bitcoin’s upside.
The market’s rapid shift in expectations was captured by analyst account Global Markets Investor, who shared the updated prediction chart on Polymarket, stating:
“What a difference two days make in market expectations.”
— Global Markets Investor
Rising odds of easier monetary policy have long been tied to bullish crypto movements, adding additional support for the ongoing Bitcoin price recovery narrative.
Analysts widely agree that the coming days will be decisive. Swissblock stressed that Bitcoin still needs “selling pressure to continue fading” to confirm that the bottom is in. If this week’s trading maintains strength, it could lock in one of the most important early indicators of a lasting Bitcoin price recovery.
With selling pressure easing, rate-cut optimism rising, and historically reliable bottom patterns forming, traders are watching closely for what could become one of the most significant Bitcoin price recovery phases of 2025.
