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Bitwise has filed with the SEC to launch PredictionShares ETFs, a new class of funds that would allow investors to gain regulated exposure to the probability of real-world political and economic outcomes — bringing the mechanics of platforms like Polymarket into traditional brokerage accounts for the first time.
The filing, submitted in early 2026, seeks approval for PredictionShares ETFs designed to track outcomes of major political and economic events using regulated forecasting markets.
The move comes as institutional demand for crypto-adjacent investment products continues to expand following the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of altcoin ETF applications.
According to multiple industry reports, Bitwise partnered with ETF issuer GraniteShares in a competitive race to bring prediction-based investment vehicles to U.S. markets.
Prediction markets, platforms where participants trade contracts based on the probability of real-world outcomes, have grown rapidly.
Industry trading volume surged past $44 billion in 2025, more than doubling from the previous year, signaling increasing institutional attention.
James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, described the filing as a potentially transformative step for financial markets.
“This represents a bridge between event forecasting and regulated securities markets.” James Seyffart, ETF Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence.
The proposal signals how ideas pioneered in decentralized finance and prediction platforms may increasingly migrate into regulated financial infrastructure.
Prediction markets have long existed on the fringes of finance, popular among crypto traders through platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
However, growing liquidity and improved regulatory frameworks have made them increasingly attractive to institutional players.
Data cited in recent filings shows that a small number of platforms now generate nearly 85–90% of global prediction-market trading volume, creating deeper liquidity pools capable of supporting ETF structures.
The ETF structure would allow investors to gain exposure to probability-based event outcomes without directly participating in betting or derivatives platforms.
Industry analysts believe this could open prediction markets to traditional brokerage accounts, retirement portfolios, and institutional asset allocators who cannot access crypto-native platforms.
A spokesperson familiar with the filing emphasized the broader significance:
“Packaging prediction markets into ETFs could dramatically expand access while keeping investors within regulated frameworks.” Industry analyst statement reported by market outlets.
The innovation reflects a broader convergence between decentralized experimentation and traditional finance products, a trend already visible in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and emerging altcoin ETFs.
Despite growing momentum, approval is far from guaranteed. The SEC has historically approached novel crypto-linked financial products cautiously, often requesting additional market-risk analysis and investor-protection safeguards.
Bitwise’s filing arrives amid a broader wave of ETF applications. The firm has recently submitted proposals covering multiple crypto assets and strategies, including DeFi tokens and hybrid crypto exposure funds designed to align with updated SEC listing standards.
Regulators may scrutinize prediction-market ETFs more heavily than traditional crypto funds because they intersect with election forecasting and event-based speculation, areas that raise legal and ethical questions.
An IMF-aligned policy perspective previously warned that subsidizing or formalizing speculative markets could distort broader financial incentives, highlighting the delicate regulatory balance such products face.
Still, analysts note that regulatory engagement with ETF issuers has increased significantly since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting a more structured pathway for innovation.
Bitwise’s prediction-market ETF proposal represents more than just another product launch, it signals the continued institutionalization of ideas born in crypto ecosystems.
Bitwise itself has forecast that ETFs will play a dominant role in digital-asset adoption, predicting that institutional investors will gain widespread access to crypto ETFs by 2026 as demand accelerates.
The strategy reflects a broader shift: instead of focusing solely on tokens, asset managers are now packaging market behavior itself.
Introduce a new asset class blending finance, data, and forecasting.
Expand ETF innovation beyond price tracking into outcome-based investing.
Provide crypto investors indirect exposure to prediction-market growth without using decentralized platforms.
However, risks remain. Critics argue that tying ETFs to political or event outcomes could increase volatility and public scrutiny, especially during election cycles.
Still, momentum appears strong. Multiple issuers have entered the race to launch similar funds.
As Wall Street continues absorbing concepts pioneered in crypto, Bitwise’s latest filing highlights a clear trend: the next phase of ETF innovation may not just track assets.
