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Bitcoin short-term holders have realized their largest losses since the November 2022 FTX collapse, with recent buyers capitulating as BTC traded below $92,000, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
The selling wave mirrors the panic seen during the FTX crisis, though analysts note the current drawdown lacks a major liquidity event or institutional failure.
While short-term holders locked in steep losses, long-term holders remained steady, having accumulated at an average realized price of $54,622—a pattern that historically signals a market bottom.
Despite the fear gripping speculative wallets, long-term Bitcoin investors remain remarkably resilient.
Glassnode data shows long-term holders realized only minimal losses, largely because they accumulated at significantly lower prices. The network’s average realized price now stands at $54,622, the highest in Bitcoin’s history.
“Short-term market participants were under the most stress during this drawdown,” said James Check, Lead Analyst at Glassnode. “When newer buyers capitulate while long-term holders stay steady, the market often finds a structural bottom.”
In 2025, whale behavior added an additional layer of complexity. Many whales distributed their older coins near price peaks—perfect timing relative to the subsequent decline.
But as prices dipped into the $80,000 zone, it was BTC short-term holders who cracked first, locking in painful losses.
BTC briefly bounced back to $94,000, only to slip below $92,000 hours later. Traders are cautious but hopeful as small indicators hint at strengthening momentum.
Historically, short-term capitulation has aligned with local bottoms, and analysts are seeing similar patterns now.
“In Bitcoin’s market cycles, short-term capitulation is a necessary cleansing event,” noted crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe. “When retail sellers give up, it often sets the stage for the next rally.”
One of the largest 2025 capitulation events occurred in August, and it was immediately followed by a notable market rebound.
During Bitcoin’s decline from its October peak, capitulation didn’t occur until BTC scraped below $85,000, forcing retail and speculative buyers to sell to avoid deeper losses.
Meanwhile, whales and long-term holders—including institutional treasuries—tended to sell near price highs rather than lows.
Interestingly, not all BTC short-term holders suffered. On average, these wallets still show a slight net gain, with their realized price hovering around $104,000 per BTC—well above the current market level.
This suggests that a strategic subset of short-term participants continues to trade actively, waiting for the next profitable exit.
Bitcoin’s turbulence isn’t over. Volatility has spiked to 2.49%, one of the highest levels in the past 12 months, signaling that BTC is entering yet another chaotic—but potentially profitable—trading phase.
For most of 2025, volatility held below 2%, a sign of market maturity. But as deleveraging and spot selling intensified, Bitcoin reminded investors it can still produce sharp, emotional swings.
The broader sentiment remains fearful, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 28, reflecting widespread caution. More selling pressure may also emerge from miners, who are entering distressed conditions for the first time since August.
The hash ribbon indicator—often seen as a miner stress gauge—has begun flashing again, a sign that small miners may soon capitulate.
Bitcoin analysts warn that the latest shakeout from BTC short-term holders may be far more consequential than traders realize, setting the stage for an explosive rebound if buyers return.
With volatility spiking and miners under pressure, markets are bracing for a decisive breakout moment—one that could redefine Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.
