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Bitcoin exchange supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, with investors withdrawing more than 45,000 BTC—worth approximately $4.8 billion—since early October. The exodus reflects a pronounced shift toward self-custody and long-term holding, reducing the amount of bitcoin available for immediate trading and potentially tightening sell-side liquidity.
As of Monday morning, Bitcoin traded at $110,544, up 3.16% in 24 hours after four days below $110,000. Ether followed with a 3.6% rise to $4,036, while other major assets like BNB, XRP, and Solana posted gains between 2.68% and 3.91%.
Lower Bitcoin exchange supply typically signals fewer coins available for sale, tightening the market’s liquidity and supporting prices. According to Glassnode data, the decline coincides with renewed demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional inflows.
The rebound in prices coincides with improved macroeconomic sentiment. Traders now assign a 98.9% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, based on the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of “labor market softness,” easing bond yields and boosting demand for risk assets.
“Lower yields are helping restore confidence in high-volatility markets like crypto,” Rachael Lucas, Analyst at BTC Markets.
Lucas added that institutional inflows have supported the latest price recovery. Many investors see the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity ahead of monetary easing, further reducing the Bitcoin exchange supply.
Data shows that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin and transferring it to hardware wallets, reflecting a preference for self-custody. Analysts say this withdrawal trend represents an accumulation phase rather than panic selling.
Bitcoin’s circulating supply now stands at 19.93 million, leaving fewer than 1.1 million coins yet to be mined before reaching the 21 million hard cap.
The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently -7.56%, signaling that recent buyers are holding small unrealized losses. Historically, such readings have aligned with accumulation phases that precede major price uptrends.
“Negative MVRV readings suggest market participants are accumulating rather than distributing,” Vincent Liu, Market Strategist, Kronos Research.
Analysts have identified $107,000 and $110,000 as critical support levels. A drop below $107,000 could shift sentiment and trigger liquidations, while a breakout above $111,000 may ignite stronger bullish momentum.
Lucas noted that resistance between $111,700 and $115,500 could define Bitcoin’s next price channel. Technical indicators, such as the RSI rising from 35 to 59, show growing momentum without overbought pressure.
A sustained move above $110,850 could open a path toward $113,500 and $115,960. Conversely, failure to hold above $107,400 may lead to retracements toward $104,550 or $102,000.
The Bitcoin exchange supply decline continues to tighten available liquidity on major platforms, reinforcing the bullish outlook as Bitcoin’s total market capitalization rises to $2.16 trillion.
