Traditional altseason is dead as liquidity turns selective, analysts warn

The next crypto bull run won’t lift all boats. Instead, capital will flow almost exclusively to a handful of blue-chip cryptocurrencies while leaving most altcoins stranded, according to CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko.

“We predict no traditional altseason,” Ko told Cointelegraph in a recent interview. “Liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”

Crypto altseason replaced by ‘blue-chip survival mode’

According to Ko, the market structure that once fueled explosive Crypto altseason rallies has fundamentally changed.

While global liquidity conditions may offer modest tailwinds in 2026, fragmented central bank policies are expected to keep risk appetite uneven.

More critically, Bitcoin’s historical relationship with global money supply growth is weakening.

Ko noted that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to M2 expansion has “softened since the 2024 ETF launches,” with correlations diminishing as institutional flows reshape the market.

“Liquidity is no longer indiscriminate,” Ko explained. “Only assets with real network effects, deep liquidity, and sustained adoption will attract capital.”

That shift suggests a future where the Crypto altseason narrative gives way to selective accumulation of dominant layer-1s, major DeFi protocols, and infrastructure tokens—while speculative projects struggle to survive.

Bitcoin outlook still bullish despite Crypto altseason doubts

Despite the bearish tone on Crypto altseason, CoinEx remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Ko said the firm’s base case sees Bitcoin climbing to $180,000 by 2026, even as altcoins fail to replicate past cycle performance.

This divergence underscores a growing reality: Bitcoin and a small group of “blue-chip” crypto assets may decouple from the rest of the market.

For investors conditioned by previous Crypto altseason explosions, the implication is clear—returns may become harder to find and riskier to chase.

Crypto altseason skeptics clash with cycle believers

Not everyone agrees on how the next few years will unfold. Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt believes the broader crypto market could still face significant downside before the next true bull cycle begins.

Brandt recently pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced five major parabolic advances over the past 15 years, each followed by brutal drawdowns of at least 80%.

“The current cycle is not done yet,” Brandt said, but he projected the next major bull-market peak to arrive in September 2029.

That timeline aligns closely with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, with the next halving expected around April 2028.

However, if history repeats, Brandt warned Bitcoin could fall as low as $25,000 before the next peak—an outcome that would further delay any meaningful Crypto altseason.

Is the four-year cycle—and Crypto altseason—breaking down?

Historically, the fourth quarter has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. Data from Coinglass shows that eight of the past 12 Q4s delivered the largest quarterly gains of their respective years.

Yet the current quarter tells a different story. Bitcoin is down more than 22%, marking its second-worst fourth quarter on record so far.

That weakness has reignited debate over whether the four-year cycle—and the predictable Crypto altseason that often followed—still holds in an ETF-driven, institutionally dominated market.

Crypto altseason enters a new, unforgiving era

The message from analysts is blunt: the next phase of crypto may be less euphoric and far more selective.

The classic Crypto altseason playbook—spray capital across dozens of tokens and wait—may no longer work.

Instead, 2026 could reward discipline, patience, and a focus on fundamentals, while punishing speculative excess harder than ever before.