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Crypto market sentiment has been stuck in ‘extreme fear’ for 14 consecutive days, with the fear & greed index falling to 20 out of 100 on Friday—one of the longest pessimism streaks since the gauge launched in February 2018.
The extended downturn has pushed sentiment below levels seen during FTX’s November 2022 collapse, even as Bitcoin trades near $90,000, roughly five times higher than the $16,000 lows reached during that crisis.
The latest slide in the crypto fear & greed index places current sentiment below levels recorded during the shock collapse of FTX in November 2022, a period that badly damaged confidence in the crypto industry and pushed Bitcoin toward $16,000.
Market sentiment has been trending lower since early October, when renewed fears of US-China tariffs wiped nearly $500 billion from the crypto market on Oct. 10. Since then, macro uncertainty has continued to weigh on traders, even as prices stabilized well above prior cycle lows.
Concerns that the US Federal Reserve could pause interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 have added to the pressure. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of crypto exchange BTSE, warned earlier this week that Bitcoin could fall further if monetary policy remains tight.
“Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 should the Fed keep rates steady,” — Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer, BTSE, said.
Bitcoin was trading around $88,650 at the time of writing, nearly 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct. 6, according to CoinGecko data. Despite that pullback, the persistent weakness in the crypto fear & greed index suggests that investors remain deeply cautious.
Beyond price action, activity indicators linked to the crypto fear & greed index point to a broader retreat by retail participants. Data analytics platform Alphractal noted that crypto-related Google searches, Wikipedia views, and discussions on internet forums have dropped sharply in recent weeks.
“Crypto social volume has returned to levels typically seen during bear markets,” — Alphractal, Data Analytics Platform, said, adding: “December 2025, retail investors appear discouraged, disengaged, and largely absent from the crypto market.”
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan echoed that assessment last month, placing much of the blame on what he described as “crypto-native retail.”
According to Hougan, repeated shocks have left long-time participants unwilling to re-engage despite improved infrastructure and broader institutional adoption.
“Crypto native retail is depressed, they were beaten down by FTX, they were beaten down by the memecoin debacle. They were beaten down by the altcoin season not arriving. They got hurt on the 10/10 liquidation, and I think they’re just sitting this one out,” — Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise, said.
At the same time, Hougan argued that traditional investors are increasingly filling the gap.
“Traditional retail, like my uncle, he’s moving into crypto, that part of retail is still alive,” — Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise, said, pointing to steady inflows into spot crypto exchange-traded funds.
US Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $25 billion in inflows so far in 2025, even as Bitcoin is down roughly 5% year-to-date. The divergence underscores how the crypto fear & greed index is capturing unease among legacy crypto traders rather than the full spectrum of market participants.
The current stretch of extreme fear has drawn comparisons to late November, when sentiment showed early signs of stabilizing after an even longer downturn.
After 18 consecutive days in the lowest band, the crypto fear & greed index climbed back into “Fear” territory with a reading of 28, a move that some analysts viewed as a tentative turning point.
At the time, analyst Matthew Hyland described the period as the most severe of the cycle.
“A path like this for BTC Dominance would now be max pain,” — Matthew Hyland, Market Analyst, said.
Another analyst, Crypto Seth, emphasized the depth of pessimism, noting that “Extreme Fear is an understatement.”
Yet seasoned traders cautioned that such conditions have often preceded local bottoms. Crypto trader Nicola Duke observed that each prior appearance of extreme fear “has marked a local bottom for Bitcoin,” reinforcing why many investors closely monitor the crypto fear & greed index for early signals of sentiment shifts.
Still, broader indicators suggest caution remains the dominant theme. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index continues to show a strong “Bitcoin Season” reading of 22 out of 100, indicating that traders are avoiding riskier assets despite modest price rebounds.
