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Ethereum is trading at $1,975, down 61% from its August 2025 peak of $4,946, but on-chain data is painting a more nuanced picture than the price alone suggests.
More than 220,000 ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges in recent days, the largest net outflow since October, even as spot volumes decline and derivatives exposure contracts, signaling that long-term holders may be absorbing sell-side pressure rather than adding to it.
Market data show that activity across both spot and derivatives markets has slowed markedly.
Spot trading volume stood at $22 billion, down 11.3% over the past 24 hours, while futures volume fell 14% to $47 billion, according to Coinglass.
Open interest also declined by 5% to $23 billion, indicating that traders are closing positions rather than adding fresh leverage.
This contraction suggests a defensive stance among market participants. When both volume and open interest decline alongside price, it often reflects risk reduction rather than aggressive short positioning.
For analysts tracking the Ethereum price prediction, the data point to exhaustion rather than capitulation, with fewer participants willing to bet on sharp near-term moves.
Still, the broader technical structure remains bearish. Ethereum continues to post lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend that has dominated since late 2025.
While price action remains under pressure, blockchain data tell a different story.
According to a Feb. 10 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain, more than 220,000 ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges in recent days, marking the largest net outflow since October.
Binance alone recorded approximately 158,000 ETH in daily net outflows on Feb. 5, its highest level since last August.
Large exchange withdrawals are typically interpreted as a reduction in immediate sell-side supply, as coins moved to private wallets are less readily available for liquidation.
“Sustained exchange outflows usually signal reduced selling pressure rather than speculative positioning,” — Arab Chain, CryptoQuant contributor.
For the Ethereum price prediction, this trend is notable because it contrasts sharply with falling prices.
Although outflows do not guarantee a rebound, they alter the supply dynamics by tightening the liquid float, which can amplify price reactions if demand stabilizes.
Additional data from analyst _OnChain show that so-called “accumulating addresses” wallets that have never recorded an outflow, hold at least 100 ETH, and are not linked to exchanges or miners now control about 27 million ETH, roughly 23% of the circulating supply.
Historically, Ethereum has traded below the realized price of these addresses only twice in nine years, during major market stress periods. “Long-term holders have historically been less inclined to sell near these levels,” — _OnChain, blockchain analyst.
From a technical perspective, the Ethereum price prediction now centers on whether the $1,850 support zone can hold.
Selling pressure accelerated after ETH broke below the $3,200–$3,300 range earlier in the cycle, and price action has since drifted closer to this lower support area.
Volatility has also increased. During the recent decline, the 20-period Bollinger Bands widened significantly, a sign of heightened price swings.
ETH briefly touched the lower band near $1,690, a level often tested during sharp sell-offs. The middle band, now around $2,490, is acting as resistance, while the upper band sits near $3,290.
Momentum indicators remain weak. The relative strength index fell below 30, entering oversold territory, and currently hovers in the 30–32 range.
Although the pace of decline has slowed, there is no clear bullish divergence yet to suggest a confirmed reversal.
If $1,850 holds, Ethereum could stabilize and attempt a modest rebound toward $2,000–$2,100.
A more meaningful shift in the Ethereum price prediction would require a sustained move above $2,490, reclaiming the middle Bollinger Band and signaling a potential trend change.
Such a move would likely need RSI to climb above the 40–45 range, accompanied by expanding spot volume on up days.
Conversely, a decisive break below $1,850 would increase downside risk. In that scenario, ETH could quickly test $1,750, followed by the lower Bollinger Band near $1,690.
Continued declines in open interest and weak spot demand would reinforce a bearish continuation case.
For now, the Ethereum price prediction remains finely balanced between deteriorating technicals and quietly strengthening long-term holder behavior.
Whether accumulation can offset broader market weakness will likely determine Ethereum’s next major move.
