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Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $94,850 in the 24 hours following the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive interest rate cut Wednesday, as on-chain data indicates selling pressure has not reached levels typically associated with market bottoms.
The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive Fed rate cut on Wednesday lowering the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. One dissenting voice, Trump appointee Stephen Miran, argued for a larger 0.50 percentage point adjustment highlighting ongoing debate about the pace of easing.
On-chain data from Ali Charts indicates that Bitcoin has yet to reach a capitulation zone. Realized losses currently stand at negative 18%, considerably above the negative 37% threshold that has historically coincided with strong buying opportunities in past cycles.
These realized losses reflect actual losses incurred by traders when liquidating positions offering a clearer picture of market sentiment than unrealized losses.
Despite the Fed’s third Fed rate cut, Bitcoin continues to trade near key support levels while traditional safe haven assets have outperformed digital currencies in recent weeks. Policy analyst Daugherty noted that previous predictions by President Trump and Scott Besent accurately anticipated the shift in Fed policy.
The dissenting vote on the Fed rate cut underscores internal disagreements regarding the magnitude of monetary easing. Markets are now pricing in the possibility of additional Fed rate cuts through 2026, signaling ongoing uncertainty.
Historical patterns suggest that the current realized losses are insufficient to trigger long term buying interest. The negative 37% realized loss benchmark has previously marked strong recovery points across multiple Bitcoin cycles. Analysts emphasize that the market may require further Fed rate cuts or selling pressure to approach these levels.
Market behavior shows a split between holder cohorts: short term holders are continuing to sell applying downward pressure while long term holders maintain accumulation at current price levels. This divergence, combined with lingering uncertainty and profit taking contributes to persistent volatility.
Some market participants attribute Bitcoin’s current softness to profit taking after prior gains while others point to regulatory uncertainties as an additional drag. The third Fed rate cut has yet to reverse these trends highlighting the challenges digital assets face even in an easing interest rate environment.
With on-chain data pointing to further potential downside, the path for Bitcoin remains cautious despite repeated Fed rate cuts leaving investors weighing short term volatility against long-term accumulation opportunities.
