Global Bitcoin ETPs now control 7% of BTC supply as inflows slow

Global Bitcoin ETPs have amassed more than 1.47 million BTC, representing roughly 7% of the cryptocurrency’s capped 21 million supply, according to new data shared Monday by market tracker HODL15Capital.

The lion’s share belongs to U.S.-based exchange-traded funds. Across 11 funds, U.S. ETFs now hold more than 1.29 million BTC, underscoring their role as the dominant driver of institutional Bitcoin accumulation. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) leads the pack with 746,810 BTC, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) follows with just under 199,500 BTC.

Since December 31, 2024, global Bitcoin ETPs have collectively added over 170,000 BTC worth approximately $18.7 billion, marking one of the most significant periods of institutional growth for the asset.

“Bitcoin’s integration into regulated products has given institutions unprecedented access,” — James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares. “But we’re beginning to see diversification pressures as investors look beyond Bitcoin.”

Demand for Bitcoin loses momentum

Despite this milestone, recent flows suggest that enthusiasm for global Bitcoin ETPs may be cooling. In August, these products recorded a net outflow of $301 million, CoinShares reported, even as Ethereum-based funds attracted a striking $3.95 billion in inflows.

On-chain activity reflects the trend. A prominent Bitcoin whale sold 4,000 BTC on Monday, swapping the proceeds for 96,859 Ether, now valued at $3.8 billion. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows nine major Bitcoin holders collectively rotated into ETH, totaling $456 million in recent weeks.

“Whales booking profits in Bitcoin and moving into Ethereum highlights a tactical shift,” — Matteo Greco, Analyst at Fineqia International. “Institutional portfolios are no longer BTC-only bets.”

Seasonal weakness and regulatory uncertainty

The slowdown in global Bitcoin ETPs comes as September, historically the weakest month for Bitcoin, adds seasonal headwinds. Meanwhile, gold has ticked higher, further weighing on Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Regulatory bottlenecks also loom large. As many as 92 crypto-related ETF applications are currently awaiting review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among the most anticipated are funds tied to Solana and XRP, with rulings expected in October. Market participants say this backlog could be tempering fresh allocations into Bitcoin products.

“The pipeline of pending crypto ETFs introduces uncertainty,” — Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation. “Investors may be waiting for regulatory clarity before deploying new capital.”

What’s next for Bitcoin investors?

Market forecasts for global Bitcoin ETPs remain divided. Pseudonymous analyst PlanC said Bitcoin’s path to $1 million is likely to be gradual rather than explosive. “Instead, we just keep grinding slowly upward to $1,000,000 over the next seven years in a very boring and underwhelming way,” he wrote.

Research firm Delphi Digital added that Bitcoin could rally sharply if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates but warned that gains could be short-lived if speculative flows overheat the market beforehand. “The key driver is whether Bitcoin builds momentum ahead of a rate cut,” Delphi noted.

For crypto investors, the message is mixed. On one hand, global Bitcoin ETPs cement Bitcoin’s role as a leading institutional asset. On the other, shifting flows into Ethereum and other emerging assets suggest Bitcoin may no longer be the sole entry point for regulated capital.

Institutional demand will also depend heavily on regulatory clarity. With more than 90 crypto-related ETFs still awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the eventual green light for products tied to Solana, XRP, or other assets could reshape where institutional capital flows. “Investors are waiting to see which assets regulators legitimize next,” — James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s historical performance patterns remain a key factor. September has long been one of the weakest months for the cryptocurrency, often delivering negative returns compared to other periods. If seasonal trends persist, short-term traders may adopt defensive positions, while long-term holders could view downturns as buying opportunities.

Finally, the broader macroeconomic landscape will continue to influence sentiment. Rising gold prices, ongoing uncertainty around central bank policies, and geopolitical risks are driving investors toward diversified hedges. For many, global Bitcoin ETPs now represent one piece of a larger risk-hedging strategy rather than the sole store of value in turbulent markets.