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Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid has listed perpetual contracts for rival platform Lighter’s LIT token before its official launch, enabling leveraged trading on a token that doesn’t yet exist.
The move comes as Polymarket prediction markets show 85% probability of a Lighter airdrop before December 31, with 75% of traders betting on a December 29 distribution date specifically. Early LIT-USDC perpetual trading pushed Lighter’s implied valuation above $3 billion in fully diluted value.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market where users trade yes/no shares on future events, has become a focal point for traders wagering on the timing and success of Lighter’s airdrop.
According to reports from Cointelegraph, the on-chain data aggregated from Polymarket contracts, more than 85 % of market positions currently reflect a belief that the LIT airdrop will occur before December 31, 2025.
Volume on the Lighter airdrop market has topped millions of dollars in recent sessions, dwarfing typical prediction lines and signaling robust speculative interest.
A separate Polymarket market shows a roughly 75 % probability assigned to a December 29 airdrop date, with much smaller odds placed on later dates or no airdrop in 2025.
“Polymarket markets are reflecting strong conviction that Lighter will deliver its token by year-end, with liquidity and open interest climbing sharply,” said Alex Meng, a decentralized finance analyst at MarketPulse Research. He also added “That’s attracting both retail and professional bettors looking to capitalize on asymmetric outcomes.”
Polymarket’s activity shows how traders increasingly use prediction markets not just for event forecasting but as risk-on instruments correlated with broader crypto asset flows.
The decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid is historically positioned as a competitor to Lighter listed LIT-USDC perpetual contracts for pre-market trading prior to the token’s official issuance.
This move allowed traders to take leveraged longs and shorts on LIT’s implied price, with early trades pushing implied valuations above $3 billion in fully diluted valuation (FDV) at peak pricing.
“By community request, Hyperliquid has listed LIT-USDC hyperps. You can now long or short the unlaunched Lighter token with up to 3x leverage,” Hyperliquid said in a posting on its official X account.
Active traders have access to pre-market perpetuals means exposure to directional moves before the live market opens but also elevated risk due to potential liquidity gaps and price dislocations. Traders must manage leverage carefully, especially given that LIT’s official market price won’t be determined until the TGE.
Lighter is a decentralized perpetual exchange built on Ethereum layer-2 technology (ZK rollup) that has rapidly scaled since its public mainnet launch in October 2025.
The protocol’s points program a mechanism rewarding users for trading, liquidity provision, and referral activity has been central to airdrop eligibility.
Recently, the project shifted 250 million LIT tokens (25 % of the total supply) from team reserves to circulation-eligible wallets, a move widely interpreted as preparation for the upcoming airdrop.
“The distribution of these tokens is a necessary step toward fulfilling community rewards and signals that the airdrop mechanism is being activated,” said Marisol Vega, lead markets strategist at CryptoFund Insights. “Traders are essentially betting on both timing and valuation when they price LIT outcomes.”
If the airdrop proceeds as expected, eligible users will receive allocations that could become tradable immediately upon listing, creating potential near-term catalysts for price momentum.
Polymarket sentiment trends: Sudden shifts in probability pricing may foreshadow broader crowd positioning changes.
Pre-market perpetual volumes: Liquidity spikes or drawdowns on Hyperliquid could precede sharp price moves once LIT officially launches.
On-chain eligibility data: Lighter’s airdrop dashboard and points program updates may affect who receives tokens and how large their allocations are.
Despite the excitement, traders must weigh risks including volatility, lack of formal exchange listings, and the speculative nature of both prediction markets and pre-market perpetual trading.
