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With just days left until October, crypto investors are debating whether the seasonal rally known as “Uptober” can overcome the latest crypto market decline. On Monday, total market capitalization shed $80 billion, with Bitcoin sliding to a twelve-day low of $114,270 and Ethereum dipping below $4,300.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s most reliable months. Data from CoinGlass shows the asset has closed in the green 10 out of 12 times since 2013, earning the nickname “Uptober.” During bull years such as 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin surged 48% and 40% in October alone. The last negative October came in 2018, when the asset fell 3.8%.
A similar surge in 2025 could push Bitcoin toward $165,000, but the current crypto market decline has dampened investor optimism. The tension between historical seasonality and present macroeconomic headwinds now shapes the debate.
Some analysts argue that liquidity drivers could soon reverse the crypto market decline. Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé noted on Monday that futures markets now price a 92% chance of another Federal Reserve rate cut in October.
“The easing cycle is basically priced in, and liquidity is on the way,” Chassé said, describing liquidity as “the fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on.”
Pseudonymous analyst Sykodelic echoed this view, suggesting short-term weakness could precede a sharp rally. “$112,500 is the number, and when we get there, we’ll see the usual suspects calling for rate cuts being bearish and market topping,” they wrote. “After we get this over with, it’s on to new highs and the start of the explosive final leg that will push the market into euphoria.”
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argued that structural liquidity flows could flip sentiment. Posting on X, Hayes said crypto would enter an “up only mode” once the U.S. Treasury completes its push to refill the Treasury General Account, which surged past $850 billion earlier this month. “With this liquidity drain complete, up only can resume,” he wrote.
Together, these voices highlight why many traders remain bullish despite the current crypto market decline.
Not all observers share the optimism. Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, cautioned that upside could remain capped in the near term.
“We expect any BTC rallies to be relatively muted given the extremely low implied volatility and upside skews, weakening DAT inflow momentum, and presence of profit takers still looking to sell to cap upside,” Fan said. He added that “longer-term investors will have to be more patient before new all-time highs are reached.”
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, was similarly cautious, citing macroeconomic risks.
“We think that the Uptober trend is less likely to occur this year given the macro uncertainty and the fact that September hasn’t seen markets fall,” Mei said. Still, he acknowledged that “if the Fed indicates more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, this could change.”
These warnings underline how the crypto market decline may persist if liquidity flows or policy shifts fall short of expectations.
For investors weighing exposure, the next few weeks could prove decisive. The crypto market decline has created entry points for some, but also heightened caution about volatility. With Bitcoin hovering near $114,000 and Ethereum at two-week lows, traders face a crossroads between seasonality and macro headwinds.
If historical “Uptober” trends hold, a recovery rally could take shape by mid-October. However, analysts stress that liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, and broader risk sentiment will play outsized roles. For now, the crypto market decline serves as both a warning and an opportunity, underscoring the importance of timing in an asset class where seasonal optimism often collides with structural risks.
As one analyst noted privately, “Seasonal patterns matter in crypto, but only until they don’t. What really counts is liquidity, and liquidity is still in flux.”
Whether Bitcoin climbs toward $165,000 or stalls near current levels, October’s performance will test the resilience of investor confidence after this latest crypto market decline.
