PI price recovery faces more hurdles as network decouples from Bitcoin

A PI price recovery attempt has hit a major roadblock as the cryptocurrency struggles to regain its $1 valuation, with technical indicators and weakening Bitcoin correlation creating obstacles. Currently trading at $0.77, PI needs a 28% surge to reach the dollar mark, a challenge compounded by strengthening bearish signals.

“The ADX at 32 shows this downtrend has significant momentum behind it,” noted Markus Thielen, head researcher at Matrixport. “When combined with the Parabolic SAR’s sell signal, we’re looking at strong technical resistance to any PI price recovery in the near term.”

Decoupling from Bitcoin raises concerns

A surprising development in the PI price recovery narrative is its rapidly diminishing correlation with Bitcoin. Once moving in relative sync (0.75 correlation in Q1 2025), the metric has plunged to just 0.25 and continues falling. This decoupling occurs as bitcoin itself rallies to new all-time highs, leaving PI behind.

“Normally, we’d expect altcoins to get a boost from BTC’s performance,” said cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts. “But PI’s weakening correlation suggests unique network-specific factors are now driving its valuation more than broader market trends.”

The PI price recovery appears increasingly dependent on internal ecosystem developments rather than riding bitcoin’s coattails. Network growth metrics and mainnet adoption rates may now outweigh general crypto market sentiment in determining PI’s valuation trajectory.

Critical support levels in focus

Technical analysts identify $0.71 as the make-or-break level for PI’s near-term prospects:

• Bullish scenario: Holding $0.71 could set stage for challenging resistances at $0.78 and $0.87

• Bearish scenario: Breakdown below $0.71 may trigger slide toward $0.61 support

“The $0.71 level represents the last line of defense for bulls hoping for a PI price recovery,” warned TradingView analyst CryptoMichNL. “Daily closes below this would likely accelerate selling pressure.”

Ecosystem developments offer hope

Despite technical challenges, several fundamental factors could support the Pi price recovery:

1. Mainnet migration progress: Over 3.5 million wallets now migrated to mainnet

2. Exchange listings: Recent additions on multiple tier-2 exchanges improving liquidity

3. Utility growth: 12% quarter-over-quarter increase in PI-accepting merchants

“While short-term charts look concerning, PI’s long-term value proposition continues strengthening,” said Pi Network community leader Sarah Sun. “The PI price recovery may simply need more time as utility catches up with speculation.”

Mixed signals from derivatives markets

Futures market data reveals conflicting signals about trader expectations for PI price recovery:

• Open interest: Down 18% month-over-month, suggesting capital outflow

• Funding rates: Slightly positive (0.002%), indicating modest bullish bias among remaining traders

This divergence makes PI’s near-term direction particularly difficult to predict, with the potential for sharp moves in either direction if one set of traders gets squeezed.

The road ahead for Pi Network

As the PI price recovery stalls below $1, several critical questions emerge:

• Can ecosystem growth offset technical selling pressure?

• Will decoupling from Bitcoin prove beneficial or harmful long-term?

• How will upcoming protocol upgrades (like the planned Q3 smart contract enhancements) impact valuation?

For now, traders appear cautious. “I’m waiting for either a confirmed breakdown below $0.71 or a clean break above $0.87 before taking significant PI positions,” shared hedge fund manager Darren Wong.

“The PI price recovery story needs clearer confirmation either way.”

With multiple conflicting signals across technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators, PI’s journey back to $1 appears set to remain volatile. The coming weeks’ price action around key levels may determine whether this becomes a healthy consolidation before another PI price recovery attempt or the start of a deeper correction.