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Prediction markets recorded over $12 billion in trading volume during January, an all-time monthly high driven by Super Bowl betting and continued political speculation on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
The milestone comes as the CFTC moves to establish clearer rules for the rapidly growing sector, which has more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.
January marked a turning point for Prediction market volume, with aggregate trading activity clearing $12 billion for the first time, according to platform data compiled from Dune Analytics.
Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Probable each surpassed $1 billion in individual monthly volume, underscoring how liquidity is concentrating among a handful of fast-growing platforms.
Kalshi posted a seven-day average trading volume of $137 million, while its 30-day average reached $119.66 million and its 90-day average stood at $97.54 million. The platform’s week-over-week growth was 10.62%, month-over-month expansion reached 37.71%, and quarter-over-quarter growth surged 128.63%.
Polymarket tracked closely behind. Its seven-day average volume reached $129.16 million, with a 30-day average of $110.19 million and a 90-day average of $82.23 million. Growth metrics were similarly strong, with week-over-week volume up 15.76%, month-over-month up 48.53%, and quarter-over-quarter rising 162.49%.
Together, Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for more than half of total Prediction market volume across major platforms, reflecting both user preference and the depth of markets available on regulated exchanges.
Beyond headline Prediction market volume, open interest data provides insight into trader conviction and market structure. Kalshi reported open interest of $428.18 million, with a volume-to-open-interest ratio of 32%, a level closely monitored by traders to gauge turnover and liquidity efficiency.
Polymarket’s open interest stood at $405.85 million, producing a similar volume-to-open-interest ratio of 31.83%. Market share figures further reinforced the duopoly at the top: Kalshi held between 28% and 31% share across seven-, 30-, and 90-day periods, while Polymarket controlled roughly 26% to 27% over the same horizons.
Probable, however, posted the most extreme figures. Its seven-day average volume reached $101.78 million, while open interest was just $3.55 million. This imbalance pushed its volume-to-open-interest ratio to 2,870.49%, one of the highest readings in the prediction sector and a striking illustration of speculative turnover driving Prediction market volume.
Opinion also delivered strong numbers, recording $101.02 million in seven-day volume, $107.14 million over 30 days, and $90.22 million over 90 days. With open interest of $128.23 million, its ratio stood at 78.78%, placing it between high-churn platforms and more stable markets.
While large platforms dominated overall Prediction market volume, smaller exchanges experienced sharp fluctuations that point to experimentation and niche participation. Predict Fun averaged $10.97 million over seven days, with week-over-week volume falling 25.83% but month-over-month jumping 277.84%.
Limitless Exchange recorded $3.51 million in seven-day volume, supported by a 170.03% weekly increase, while open interest remained relatively low at $364,210. SX Bet posted $2.52 million in weekly volume with $744,080 in open interest, producing a 338.66% ratio.
Other platforms, including PancakeSwap Prediction, Myriad Markets, Football.Fun, Rain, and DFlow Prediction Market, contributed smaller but notable volumes. Rain, for instance, posted an 8,101.94% weekly increase on $116,230 in volume, highlighting how rapidly Prediction market volume can spike on emerging or event-driven platforms.
Collectively, these movements illustrate a widening ecosystem in which liquidity can surge or vanish quickly, depending on contract design, user incentives, and event relevance.
The explosive growth in Prediction market volume has drawn renewed attention from regulators, particularly in the United States. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has confirmed it is rewriting rules governing the multi-billion-dollar prediction market industry.
“It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets,” — Michael Selig, Chairman, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
“I will continue to support the responsible development of event contract markets,” — Michael Selig, Chairman, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi and the U.S. arm of Polymarket currently operate CFTC-regulated exchanges, allowing users to trade outcomes linked to elections and major sporting events such as the Super Bowl. Sports-related contracts accounted for the bulk of Kalshi’s activity in January, according to Dune data, further driving Prediction market volume higher.
Selig has withdrawn earlier proposals that sought to ban sports and political contracts, stating that previous guidance “has instead contributed to uncertainty in our markets,” — Michael Selig, Chairman, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He added that the agency would defend its exclusive authority over commodity derivatives as lawmakers debate broader oversight frameworks.
As legislation remains under discussion, regulators and platforms alike face pressure to balance innovation with consumer protection. With Prediction market volume now firmly in the tens of billions, the outcome of these regulatory efforts is likely to shape how prediction markets evolve in 2026 and beyond.
