The Bit Gazette

Tag: volatility

Danske Bank ends eight-year crypto ban by adding Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs for retail customers

Danske Bank, Denmark’s largest lender, has listed Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) for retail customers, reversing an eight-year internal stance against offering crypto-related services.

Announced on February 11, the move allows users of Danske eBanking and Danske Mobile Banking to gain regulated exposure to digital assets without directly holding cryptocurrency, though the bank was explicit that it is not endorsing crypto as a recommended asset class.

Danske Bank trading platform reverses eight-year crypto stance

The introduction of crypto-linked products represents a reversal of the bank’s earlier position. In a 2018 report, Danske Bank stated:

“Overall, we are negative towards cryptocurrencies and we strongly recommend that our customers avoid investing in cryptocurrencies,” reaffirming its internal ban in 2021.

However, the landscape has shifted. Kerstin Lysholm, Head of Investment Products & Offering at Danske Bank, said customer interest played a central role in the decision to update the Danske Bank trading platform.

“As cryptocurrencies have become a more common asset class, we are receiving an increasing number of enquiries from customers wanting the option of investing in cryptocurrencies as part of their investment portfolio,” — Kerstin Lysholm, Head of Investment Products & Offering, Danske Bank.

Lysholm added that regulatory developments, particularly the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation, have contributed to increased confidence in the sector. According to her, the cryptocurrency market has become “better regulated” in recent years, prompting the bank to reconsider its approach.

She stated that “on balance,” the bank concluded that “the time is ripe for making cryptocurrency investment products available to the customers who want to invest in the asset class and who accept the very high risks involved in cryptocurrency-related investments.”

Regulated access without endorsement

Despite adding crypto ETPs, the bank has emphasized that the Danske Bank trading platform is not endorsing cryptocurrencies as a recommended investment category. Instead, it frames the products as regulated instruments designed for informed investors who understand volatility risks.

In its official communication, the bank clarified that it does not offer advisory services for cryptocurrencies, describing them as “opportunistic investments” rather than suitable for long-term portfolio strategies.

“Kerstin Lysholm therefore also emphasises that access to selected cryptocurrency ETPs on Danske Bank’s trading platform should not be seen as a recommendation of the asset class from Danske Bank,” the press release stated.

Lysholm further explained the bank’s position in comments to Decrypt: “We are not moving away from our previous cautious approach but are now offering regulated products that make it possible to invest in cryptocurrencies in a safer and more transparent manner,” — Kerstin Lysholm, Head of Investment Products & Offering, Danske Bank.

Customers seeking access through the Danske Bank trading platform must pass an “appropriateness test” to confirm they understand the risks associated with crypto-related investments. Lysholm noted, “It is ultimately the customers’ own choice to invest, and we make it clear that these are opportunistic investments with high volatility.”

Market context and investor demand

The decision to update the Danske Bank trading platform comes as digital assets gain broader institutional legitimacy across Europe. The MiCA framework has introduced standardized regulatory requirements across EU member states, aiming to enhance transparency and investor protection.

According to data from Triple-A, Denmark had 70,605 cryptocurrency owners as of 2024, representing roughly 1.2% of the population. Meanwhile, Chainalysis’ Geography of Crypto 2025 report ranked Denmark 84th out of 151 countries for cryptocurrency adoption, measured by on-chain value received by centralized and decentralized platforms.

By limiting access to ETPs rather than direct cryptocurrency custody, the Danske Bank trading platform provides exposure through regulated financial instruments listed on traditional exchanges. This structure allows investors to gain price-linked exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum without managing private keys or digital wallets.

02/12/2026
Tom Lee predicts 15-20% crypto correction mid-2026 before year-end recovery

Global markets are heading into a turbulent year, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research Tom Lee, who is warning investors to brace for a Crypto market drop in 2026 before conditions improve toward the end of the year.

Speaking in January, Lee said mounting geopolitical tensions, tariff risks, and political fragmentation could weigh heavily on both equities and digital assets, triggering a sharp mid-year sell-off before a recovery takes hold.

Lee’s outlook comes as investors assess the post-2025 environment, marked by lingering deleveraging in crypto markets and shifting expectations around US monetary policy. While the strategist remains constructive on the long-term prospects of blockchain and artificial intelligence, he cautioned that near-term risks could dominate market sentiment for much of the year.

A volatile setup behind the crypto market drop

According to Lee, the anticipated Crypto market drop is part of a broader risk-off phase that could affect multiple asset classes simultaneously. He told The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost that markets may experience a sharp and “painful” decline before stabilizing later in the year.

Tom Lee on X

The Fundstrat strategist compared the potential trajectory of 2026 to the previous year, noting that structural growth drivers remain intact but are unlikely to prevent interim drawdowns.

Lee estimates that US equities could fall by as much as 15% to 20% during the correction, a move he views as significant but not unusual within a late-cycle environment.

He attributed much of the pressure to external shocks rather than deteriorating fundamentals, highlighting geopolitics and trade policy as key sources of uncertainty. Despite these risks, Lee maintained that the underlying investment case for technology-driven sectors has not materially weakened.

Federal Reserve policy and late-year recovery hopes

While the mid-year Crypto market drop could test investor confidence, Lee believes monetary conditions may ultimately support a rebound. He pointed to expectations of a more dovish US Federal Reserve and the conclusion of quantitative tightening in 2025 as factors that could ease financial conditions later in the cycle. In his view, these shifts could help markets regain footing after the anticipated correction.

Policy decisions from the White House may also play a decisive role in shaping performance across sectors. Lee suggested that tariffs and industrial policy priorities could favor areas such as energy and basic materials, even as risk assets struggle earlier in the year.

The combination of fiscal direction and monetary easing, he argued, creates the conditions for markets to finish 2026 on a stronger note than they begin.

Bitcoin, deleveraging, and signals beyond the crypto market drop

For Bitcoin, Lee remains optimistic beyond the immediate Crypto market drop, saying he still expects the cryptocurrency to reach a new all-time high in 2026.

Although he did not repeat his earlier $250,000 price target, he emphasized that a fresh record would signal the market’s recovery from the Oct. 10 crash. He described that episode as a major disruption to liquidity, noting that it impaired crypto market makers he referred to as the “central bank of crypto.”

Lee explained that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to gold reflects recurring deleveraging cycles that continue to undermine confidence. Until the asset class achieves broader mainstream adoption and deeper institutional participation, he warned, similar shocks could recur.

These dynamics, he said, are central to understanding why a Crypto market drop can be so abrupt and destabilizing compared with traditional markets.

Analysts weigh in on metals and downside risks

Other market observers broadly agree with parts of Lee’s assessment of a Crypto market drop followed by eventual recovery. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, has noted that metals outperformed crypto in 2025 and are likely to do so again in 2026.

However, Cowen also expects metals to face a significant correction later in the year, a move that could coincide with an even steeper decline in digital assets.

Taken together, these views suggest that investors may need to navigate months of volatility before clearer trends emerge. While long-term narratives around AI, blockchain, and institutional adoption remain intact, the path through 2026 is unlikely to be smooth.

As Lee’s warning underscores, the coming Crypto market drop may prove to be a defining test of resilience for both traditional and digital markets.

01/22/2026
PI token drops 8% toward October low as tariff fears meet 4.6M daily unlocks

PI token fell 8% to $0.189 on January 19, 2026, approaching its October all-time low as escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions and persistent daily unlocks of 4.6 million tokens triggered a sharp sell-off across risk assets.

The decline unfolded over a 12-hour window, with PI sliding roughly 7–8% in 24 hours to trade near $0.189, according to market data.

The sell-off occurred as broader cryptocurrency markets reacted to new U.S. tariffs targeting multiple countries, a move that rattled global equities once Asian markets opened and tested investor confidence across risk assets.

Pi Network bulls tested as token sinks on volatility and 4.6M daily unlocks – 1

The timing of the drop underscores how Pi Network volatility, long muted during previous market swings, has begun to mirror wider macroeconomic pressures. Heavy daily token unlocks, averaging more than 4.6 million PI, have compounded selling pressure and raised concerns about further downside as previously locked tokens enter circulation.

Pi Network volatility rises amid geopolitical market shock

Pi Network volatility increased notably as global markets digested fresh trade tensions between the United States and the European Union. According to official statements cited in reports, the U.S. president announced a new round of tariffs against eight countries as part of broader geopolitical maneuvering involving Greenland and Denmark.

The European Union responded swiftly. French President Emmanuel Macron called for the bloc to deploy a “trade bazooka” that would significantly restrict U.S. access to European markets, according to reports of the emergency meeting convened in response. The remark highlighted the seriousness of the standoff and its potential spillover into global financial markets.

Cryptocurrency prices initially held steady as the news broke but weakened once Asian equities and futures markets opened. Data showed that Pi, which had largely avoided sharp moves during earlier bouts of volatility, suffered pronounced losses during this phase, aligning it more closely with the broader risk-off sentiment affecting digital assets.

Unlock schedules add pressure to Pi Network volatility

Beyond macro factors, structural token dynamics have played a central role in shaping Pi Network volatility. Industry data from PiScanUnlock shows that average daily token unlocks exceed 4.6 million PI, a level analysts say can amplify selling pressure as holders gain access to previously restricted balances.

The persistent unlock schedule has raised questions about near-term supply and demand balance. As more tokens enter the market each day, investors face increased incentives to sell, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty. This dynamic has left PI vulnerable to sharper declines than during earlier phases when liquidity was more constrained.

Market participants also note that Pi did not benefit from the early January rally that saw Bitcoin surge and several major altcoins post double-digit gains. The absence of upward momentum during that period meant PI entered the latest market shock without a cushion of recent gains, intensifying Pi Network volatility when sentiment turned negative.

Stagnation breaks as Pi Network volatility tests support

For weeks prior to the latest decline, PI had traded in a narrow range, showing little reaction to broader crypto market movements. That period of stagnation ended abruptly as Pi Network volatility spiked, driving the token back toward levels last seen in October, according to historical price records.

The October low now serves as a critical psychological and technical reference point for traders. A sustained move below that level could reinforce bearish sentiment, while any stabilization may depend on a slowdown in unlock-related supply or an improvement in global risk appetite.

Market data suggests that the recent slide was not an isolated event but part of a broader recalibration as investors reassess exposure to smaller-cap tokens under macro stress. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, delayed participation in earlier rallies, and ongoing unlocks has created a challenging environment for PI holders.

Outlook shaped by Pi Network volatility and supply dynamics

Looking ahead, Pi Network volatility is likely to remain elevated as long as daily unlocks continue at current levels and global markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. The token’s performance will depend not only on broader crypto sentiment but also on how effectively the market absorbs new supply entering circulation.

While some investors may view the return to October lows as a potential accumulation zone, others remain cautious, citing the lack of clear catalysts and the ongoing risk of further downside.

For now, Pi Network volatility stands as a reminder that even assets that once appeared insulated can quickly become exposed when macro shocks and internal token mechanics converge.

01/20/2026
Bitcoin holds steady as Supreme Court prepares ruling on Trump-era tariffs

Bitcoin traded near $92,000 Tuesday as cryptocurrency investors awaited a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs that could force the government to refund more than $130 billion to importers.

The decision, expected later in the day, will determine whether former President Donald Trump lawfully imposed tariffs under emergency economic powers.

Traders say the ruling could influence broader risk sentiment and demand for alternative assets, though analysts disagree on whether the connection between trade policy and cryptocurrency prices is direct or overstated.

Crypto market forecast amid pre-ruling calm

In the hours leading up to the Supreme Court decision, the crypto market forecast reflects a cautious but steady tone. Digital asset prices posted modest gains, with Bitcoin up about 1.5%, Ethereum rising roughly 0.5%, and XRP advancing 0.7%. Market participants appear to be waiting for clarity rather than placing aggressive bets.

Lower courts have already rejected the government’s use of IEEPA-based tariffs, and if the Supreme Court agrees, the U.S. could be required to return more than $130 billion. That potential liability has sharpened concerns about fiscal strain and the limits of executive authority, creating a tense backdrop for financial markets.

“Mid-January markets are tense ahead of the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs, with traders monitoring trade policy, executive authority, and fiscal risks,” — Market summary, crypto.news.

This sense of restraint underscores how closely the crypto market forecast is tied to macroeconomic and legal developments. While price action remains positive, it lacks the momentum typically associated with strong conviction, suggesting that traders are positioning defensively until the ruling is known.

Why the ruling matters for crypto market forecast

The Supreme Court’s decision is widely viewed as a stress test for the broader economy, making it a key variable in the crypto market forecast. Should the court strike down the tariffs, the resulting fiscal obligation could increase uncertainty around government spending and debt, factors that historically push some investors toward alternative assets.

“Lower courts rejected the government’s IEEPA-based tariffs; if upheld, the U.S. could owe over $130 billion, creating fiscal strain and executive power debates,” — Market analysis, crypto.news.

Even if the tariffs are upheld, trade tensions and inflation concerns would remain part of the economic landscape. Cryptocurrencies have often benefited during periods of policy uncertainty, as investors look for hedges outside traditional financial systems.

As a result, analysts see the ruling as a potential catalyst that could influence capital flows into digital assets, reinforcing longer-term themes already embedded in the crypto market forecast.

Bitcoin outlook within the crypto market forecast

Bitcoin remains central to the crypto market forecast as the Supreme Court decision approaches. The largest cryptocurrency is trading near $92,070, holding above the psychologically important $90,000 level but facing resistance near key exponential moving averages.

A short-term pullback could test support around $86,000, though analysts say deeper losses would likely require broader market stress.

“BTC maintains a bullish outlook near $92,070, while ETH and XRP may see short-term volatility but long-term opportunities remain strong,” — Market summary, crypto.news.

Bitcoin’s resilience reflects its role as the market’s primary hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. Within the broader crypto market forecast, Bitcoin is seen as the asset most likely to absorb capital if investors respond defensively to the ruling, especially if confidence in fiscal or trade policy weakens.

Ethereum and XRP outlook as uncertainty lingers

Ethereum and XRP occupy a more sensitive position in the crypto market forecast, given their higher exposure to shifts in risk sentiment. Ethereum is hovering around $3,133 and could experience short-term volatility if the Supreme Court ruling unsettles markets.

However, longer-term expectations remain constructive, supported by anticipated institutional inflows and ongoing infrastructure development.

ETH 1-day chart, January 2026 | Source: crypto.news

XRP, trading near $2.06, has historically shown sharper moves during periods of uncertainty. Traders may initially rotate into safer assets, but a rebound in sentiment could see XRP benefit as capital flows back into alternative cryptocurrencies.

XRP 1-day chart, January 2026 | Source: crypto.news

XRP 1-day chart, January 2026 | Source: crypto.news

“Crypto markets are showing modest gains… as traders remain cautious,” — Market overview, crypto.news.

Final thoughts on the crypto market forecast

As the Supreme Court prepares to deliver its ruling on January 14, the crypto market forecast points to near-term caution paired with longer-term opportunity. Bitcoin continues to act as a stabilizing force, while Ethereum and XRP may face volatility before benefiting from renewed confidence.

01/14/2026
Bitcoin holds near $86K as traders pause ahead of US GDP release

The global crypto market entered a holding pattern on Tuesday as investors across Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins paused positioning ahead of the highly anticipated US GDP data release, a macroeconomic indicator expected to shape near-term risk appetite across financial markets.

At midday trading in Europe, Bitcoin hovered near the mid-$80,000 range while Ethereum and other large-cap tokens moved within tight intraday bands. Market participants pointed to subdued sentiment, low liquidity and a sharp reduction in leverage as signs that traders are unwilling to make aggressive bets before clarity emerges from the US GDP data print.

Analysts say the current consolidation underscores how closely digital assets have become tied to macroeconomic signals, with the upcoming US GDP data likely to determine whether volatility returns or fades further.

Crypto market pauses before US GDP data

The crypto market’s cautious tone reflects weeks of macro-driven uncertainty that have left prices compressed and conviction thin. Bitcoin remains pinned between key support in the mid-$80,000 region and resistance near the upper-$80,000 range, levels that traders see as critical inflection points once the US GDP data is released.

ETF flows and derivatives positioning remain muted, reinforcing the view that institutional investors are sitting on the sidelines.

According to market observers, upside scenarios for Bitcoin only open if bulls reclaim higher resistance levels following a favorable interpretation of the US GDP data, while downside risks remain contained so long as structural support holds.

Altcoins, meanwhile, continue to trade in narrow ranges under what analysts describe as “extreme fear” sentiment. Low liquidity and modest liquidation volumes suggest that market participants are conserving capital until the macro outlook becomes clearer through the US GDP data.

Ethereum deleveraging signals lower short-term risk

Ethereum has emerged as a key indicator of the broader market’s defensive stance. Data from Alfractal market analytics shows that Ethereum open interest has declined by roughly 50% since August, marking one of the most pronounced deleveraging phases of the year.

“The reduction represents one of the most significant deleveraging periods of the year across cryptocurrency exchanges,” — Alfractal market analytics, in its market report.

The firm said the decline reflects large investors and institutions unwinding leveraged positions across multiple trading venues, a move that has compressed short-term volatility and reduced immediate downside risk. Analysts note that this behavior aligns with broader caution ahead of the US GDP data, as leveraged exposure is often trimmed before major macro releases.

Ethereum prices have fallen nearly 4% over the past week but continue to trade within a narrow range. Technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands have tightened on daily charts, a pattern that typically accompanies periods of low volatility before a decisive move. Market participants widely expect the next breakout attempt to be influenced by how investors interpret the US GDP data.

Exchange data shows broad-based caution

The reduction in open interest is not isolated to a single exchange, suggesting a market-wide pullback rather than platform-specific stress. Binance currently holds the largest share of open interest at $7.64 billion, representing 31% of the total, followed by Gateio, HTX, Bybit and HyperLiquid, according to compiled exchange data.

CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain highlighted a parallel slowdown in spot market activity, noting a sharp drop in sell-side urgency.

“Binance taker sell volume has reached its lowest level since May,” — CryptoOnchain, CryptoQuant contributor.

The 30-day average taker sell volume has declined to around $6.3 billion, signaling that traders are under less pressure to exit positions. Analysts say this restraint further supports the view that market participants are waiting for confirmation from the US GDP data before committing to a directional bias.

While reduced open interest typically dampens short-term price swings, historical data shows that prolonged periods of compression can precede significant moves once a catalyst emerges. In this case, traders widely agree that the US GDP data could serve as that catalyst, shaping expectations around monetary policy, risk assets and capital flows into crypto markets.

As the release approaches, the crypto market remains in pause mode, with price action suggesting that patience, rather than prediction, is the dominant strategy. Whether volatility returns or consolidation deepens will largely depend on how investors read the next US GDP data signal.

12/23/2025
Prediction markets beat Wall Street inflation forecasts by 40% in 25-month study

Prediction markets are proving more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting inflation, according to a new study by U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi, raising questions for investors and policymakers about how economic expectations should be formed.

The findings, covering a 25-month period between early 2023 and mid-2025, suggest that prediction markets delivered significantly lower forecasting errors during times of economic uncertainty, when traditional consensus estimates struggled most.

Prediction markets show lower inflation forecast errors

Kalshi’s analysis compared inflation forecasts from its prediction markets with Wall Street consensus estimates ahead of monthly U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases. The study found that traders on prediction markets recorded a 40% lower average error rate than conventional forecasters over the period examined.

According to the report, the gap widened sharply when inflation data diverged meaningfully from expectations. In cases where CPI readings deviated strongly from forecasts, prediction markets outperformed consensus estimates by as much as 67%.

The findings were shared and detailed in a study titled “Crisis Alpha: When Do Prediction Markets Outperform Expert Consensus?”

The research also examined how disagreement between market-based and traditional forecasts correlates with the likelihood of surprises.

When Kalshi’s CPI estimate differed from Wall Street consensus by more than 0.1 percentage point one week before release, the probability of a significant inflation surprise rose to roughly 80%, compared with a 40% baseline.

Why prediction market respond faster during volatility

The study attributes the stronger performance of prediction markets to how they aggregate information. Unlike institutional forecasts, which often rely on similar datasets and shared economic models, prediction markets pool views from a diverse set of traders with direct financial incentives to be accurate.

This structure creates what Kalshi describes as a “wisdom of the crowd” effect. Traders incorporate signals ranging from sector-specific trends to alternative datasets, allowing prediction markets to adjust more rapidly as conditions change. Prices on these platforms update continuously, reflecting new information in real time, rather than being fixed days ahead of official data releases.

The study notes that institutional forecasters face reputational and organizational constraints that may discourage bold deviations from consensus. In contrast, participants in prediction markets are rewarded or penalized purely based on performance, encouraging sharper reactions during periods of stress.

“Though the sample size of shocks is small (as it should be in a world where they are largely unexpected), the pattern is clear – when the forecasting environment becomes most challenging, the information aggregation advantage of markets becomes most valuable,” — Kalshi study, “Crisis Alpha.”

Growing relevance of prediction markets for policy signals

The findings arrive as prediction markets expand rapidly in scale and visibility. Kalshi’s user base has grown following its integration into the Phantom crypto wallet, and the company recently raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation. Separately, Polymarket has been reported to be in talks for funding at valuations as high as $15 billion, underscoring rising interest in market-based forecasting tools.

Previous independent research cited in the story suggests Polymarket achieved 90% accuracy in predicting events one month out, rising to 94% accuracy just hours before outcomes occur.

However, the article also notes persistent risks, including acquiescence bias, herd behavior and low liquidity, which can distort probabilities within prediction markets.

Despite these limitations, the Kalshi study argues that prediction market can serve as a valuable complement to traditional forecasting, particularly during periods of structural uncertainty when standard models may lag reality.

“Rather than wholesale replacement of traditional forecasting methods, institutional decision-makers might consider incorporating market-based signals as complementary information sources with particular value during periods of structural uncertainty,” — Kalshi study.

12/22/2025
Market sentiment improves as fear and greed index hits 28, breaking 18-day extreme fear streak

After 18 consecutive days in the lowest band of the crypto fear & greed index, broader market sentiment is beginning to stabilize, offering early indications of a potential shift in confidence among crypto investors.

The crypto fear & greed index recorded a “Fear” reading of 28 on Saturday — the first break from “Extreme Fear” conditions since Nov. 10 — marking a notable transition in how traders interpret current market risks.

For investors tracking the crypto fear & greed index, the move is meaningful: it signals that sentiment may be slowly recovering after weeks of deep pessimism.

Market sentiment shows first signs of improvement

The crypto fear & greed index has long served as a barometer of investor psychology, combining volatility, market momentum, social media sentiment, and other factors to generate a daily score. Its climb out of “Extreme Fear” territory follows what analysts describe as one of the most prolonged negative stretches of the current cycle.

On Nov. 15, analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted the severity of the downturn, noting that the index was at the “most extreme fear level” seen in the cycle so far. “A path like this for BTC Dominance would now be max pain,” Hyland said, pointing to persistent market pressure.

A week later, on Nov. 23, analyst Crypto Seth added that “Extreme Fear is an understatement,” underscoring how sustained the negative sentiment had become during the period when the crypto fear & greed index was at its lowest.

Yet despite the grim readings, some market participants noted that such conditions have historically preceded local recoveries.

Crypto trader Nicola Duke observed that each prior appearance of extreme fear “has marked a local bottom for Bitcoin,” reflecting a pattern that many seasoned investors continue to monitor closely via the crypto fear & greed index.

Nicola Duke on X

Social sentiment indicators turn cautiously bullish

Beyond the crypto fear & greed index, several other indicators suggest a potential change in mood. Data from sentiment analysis platform Santiment showed that Bitcoin discussions across social platforms have taken on a more positive tilt following BTC’s move back toward the $92,000 region.

Santiment reported that Bitcoin was showing “generally bullish sentiment,” driven in part by conversations around price volatility and renewed institutional involvement.

These social signals align with the modest improvement seen in the crypto fear & greed index, suggesting that although the market remains fragile, the atmosphere of extreme pessimism has eased. This shift is drawing the attention of investors who closely track the crypto fear & greed index for early directional clues.

Investors remain risk-off despite Bitcoin’s momentum

Still, broader market behavior shows clear signs of caution. According to CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, market participants remain heavily tilted toward Bitcoin, with the index reflecting a firm “Bitcoin Season” reading of 22 out of 100. This reinforces the idea that even with the latest uptick in the crypto fear & greed index, traders are avoiding aggressive risk-taking in the altcoin market.

Adding further context to the cautious climate, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, noted that Bitcoin’s price action appears disconnected from broader macroeconomic expectations.

He attributed this to a misreading of recession risks, saying, “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID.” His comments offer a reminder that while sentiment indicators — including the crypto fear & greed index — can reflect psychological shifts, underlying economic factors still carry significant weight.

Outlook: A fragile recovery with macro uncertainties

Although the crypto fear & greed index has now risen for the first time in more than two weeks, analysts emphasize that the sentiment recovery remains delicate.

Trends in social media data, institutional engagement, and volatility measurements suggest a market cautiously testing the boundaries of renewed optimism. Still, with recession concerns lingering and traders heavily favoring Bitcoin over riskier assets, the path forward could remain unpredictable.

For now, the latest change in the crypto fear & greed index offers investors a rare moment of respite in an otherwise turbulent month — and a signal worth watching closely as market dynamics continue to evolve.

11/29/2025
Three traders lose $33 million in Aave and Hyperliquid liquidations as Bitcoin slides to $85,000
Three large crypto traders lost more than $33 million in liquidations on Friday after Bitcoin’s drop to $80,000 pushed their leveraged positions past collateral thresholds on Aave and Hyperliquid.

The largest single liquidation, worth $11.41 million, hit a wallet holding wrapped Bitcoin and Ether on Aave, while trader Jeffrey Huang — known as ‘Machi Big Brother’ — saw his Hyperliquid account reduced to $15,538 after a $20.23 million loss.

Within minutes, two Aave whales and celebrity trader Jeffrey “Machi Big Brother” Huang were caught in a brutal liquidation cascade, highlighting how dangerously overstretched leverage had become as volatility surged and forced collateral sales swept through the ecosystem.

Aave liquidation chaos tore through the market early Friday as Bitcoin’s violent drop to $80,000 triggered a rapid chain of forced sell-offs, wiping out more than $33 million from three major crypto traders—including two large Aave whales and prominent trader Jeffrey “Machi Big Brother” Huang.

Aave liquidation wave deepens market panic

Aave liquidation events escalated within minutes as cascading liquidations spread across highly leveraged wallets. Analysts say the sudden price move exposed how overstretched many whales had become during Bitcoin’s recent rally.

“This was a textbook liquidity crunch—too much leverage, too fast, and not enough collateral buffer,” said Michael Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations at AltTab Capital, in an interview. “When volatility spikes, Aave liquidation pressures grow exponentially.”

According to blockchain security firm PeckShield, the largest hit came from a borrower identified as wallet 0x94de…940a, who suffered an $11.41 million Aave liquidation after Bitcoin’s dip pushed their loan-to-value ratio beyond safety limits.

Aave liquidation crushes OG whale for $11.41M

The affected trader reportedly held:
- $10.55M in wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC)
- 116.66 wrapped Ether (WETH)
- Over $9.9M in Aave-related tokens
When Bitcoin slipped to $80,000, liquidation bots immediately seized collateral—sending out 56.61 ETH twice, valued at more than $154,000 each.

The total value flushed out in this Aave liquidations brought the whale’s cumulative losses to $20M, based on Hypurrscan dashboard data shared by PeckShield.

“This liquidation wasn’t random,” noted Tom Wan, On-chain Analyst at 21Shares. “Large accounts were pushing their leverage to the edge. Bitcoin only needed a slight nudge to trigger a liquidation cascade.”

A second Aave liquidation hits whale 0x3436…2094

Another borrower, wallet 0x3436…2094, faced an Aave liquidation series totaling $1.92 million during the same market downturn.

The account had posted WBTC and wstETH as collateral while borrowing USDT and USDC. According to PeckShield, this wallet is now sitting on nearly $5 million in total liquidations.

Market watchers say this second Aave liquidation confirms a growing pattern: leveraged whales are being squeezed at a rate not seen since early 2024.

Machi Big Brother fully liquidated in $20.23M wipeout

While the Aave liquidation drama rattled DeFi investors, the centralized derivatives world had its own casualty.

Crypto personality Jeffrey “Machi Big Brother” Huang was fully liquidated, according to Lookonchain, leaving his primary trading account with just $15,538—and a staggering $20.23M in realized losses.

Huang had aggressively longed Ether on Hyperliquid, even depositing 115,000 USDC six hours before his final wipeout.

Since the October 11 crash, he had transferred 6.96 million USDC onto the exchange—almost all of which is now gone.

Hyperliquid data shows his last position was a 25x cross-margin ETH long worth $274,400, entering around $2,737.
ETH’s drop below $3,000 sealed his fate.

Veteran derivatives trader Alex Krüger commented on the wipeout, saying:

“High leverage is a ticking time bomb. Machi’s wipeout is a reminder that even seasoned traders aren’t immune when volatility spikes.”

Aave liquidation surge signals broader risk

With Bitcoin still hovering near the liquidation trigger zone, analysts warn additional Aave liquidation events could follow if volatility persists.

“Once liquidation cascades start, they rarely stop immediately,” said Igor Igamberdiev, Head of Research at Wintermute. “Whales who survived this round may still be at risk if Bitcoin retests lower ranges.”

For now, the market remains on edge as the Aave liquidation wave exposes the fragility of leveraged strategies during sudden price corrections.
11/21/2025
Andrew Tate liquidated again on Hyperliquid with $800K loss in high-leverage crypto trades

In a development drawing sharp attention from crypto investors, Andrew Tate has suffered yet another Hyperliquid liquidation, losing more than $800,000 in a series of high-leverage trades on the decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid.

The incident — one in a long pattern of wipeouts — has fueled debate over whether the platform’s leverage environment is contributing to systemic losses among inexperienced and high-profile traders.

Arkham Intelligence data confirms that Tate deposited $727,000 into the exchange and kept all funds locked in open positions until a final, total Hyperliquid liquidation wiped out nearly everything.

The cycle continued when he attempted to trade an additional $75,000 earned from referral income, only for those funds to disappear through the same series of cascading losses.

Andrew Tate’s Hyperliquid Deposits. Source: Arkham

“Andrew Tate is now fully liquidated on Hyperliquid. He has only $984 left,” analyst Param explained, detailing the latest Hyperliquid liquidation sequence. “Some people thought he had been liquidated many times before. But he earned the money through referrals and traded that money on HL again and again.”

A trading history marked by volatility and repeated wipeouts

Tate’s track record on the exchange has long reflected unstable performance, culminating in multiple rounds of Hyperliquid liquidation. In June 2025, he suffered a major loss of $597,000. His attempts to recover in the following months only deepened the trend.

Analyst StarPlatinum noted that his September long on the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token ended in a $67,500 loss — followed almost immediately by another failed position. On November 14, Tate was hit again, this time on a 40× leverage BTC long that ended in a $235,000 Hyperliquid liquidation event.

One of Tate’s few positive outcomes came in August, when he secured a $16,000 gain on a short position. Even that success was short-lived, erased by new trades that quickly turned negative.

With over 80 trades recorded and a win rate of just 35.5%, Tate’s cumulative confirmed loss now stands at $699,000 — a stark demonstration of the hazards associated with aggressive leverage.

“Based on this trading record, Andrew Tate might be one of the worst traders in crypto. And people still pay him for advice,” a market watcher wrote after reviewing his latest Hyperliquid liquidation.

Other traders face similar high-stakes collapses

Tate is far from the only trader to experience severe losses driven by extreme leverage. Several well-known crypto whales — often considered influential players in the leverage markets — have faced their own dramatic Hyperliquid liquidation events on the platform.

James Wynn lost more than $23 million, watching his multimillion-dollar account shrink to just $6,010. In July, trader Qwatio absorbed a $25.8 million liquidation after a rally moved sharply against his short positions.

Another whale, identified as 0xa523, recorded losses of $43.4 million in a single month — one of the most severe Hyperliquid liquidation cases on record.

These incidents underscore a broader pattern: leverage amplifies market movements with extraordinary force, and decentralized perpetual exchanges give traders more flexibility — but also fewer safeguards — than traditional platforms.

A broader warning for crypto speculators

The wave of Hyperliquid liquidation losses from Tate, Wynn, Qwatio, and other traders serves as a critical cautionary tale across the trading community. While some users have achieved large profits through the platform’s leverage options, the rapid speed of liquidation, combined with volatile price swings, highlights the thin margin between success and wipeout.

The influence of high-profile figures like Tate may draw new traders toward leveraged products, yet his repeated Hyperliquid liquidation events illustrate how quickly the strategy can destabilize an account.

For crypto investors, his experience strengthens ongoing debates about risk management, trading education, and the psychological pressure associated with high-velocity markets.

As decentralized exchanges continue growing in adoption, these cases remain a powerful reminder: leverage can amplify opportunity — but it also magnifies every error. And even the most visible traders are not exempt from its consequences.

11/19/2025
Bitcoin falls below $94,000 to six-month low as $243 million in futures liquidated

Bitcoin fell below $94,000 on Monday to its lowest level in more than six months as $243 million in futures positions were liquidated and the cryptocurrency triggered a bearish technical signal known as a “death cross.”

The decline, which pushed prices down more than 10% over the past week, came amid continued outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and fading expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin reached an intraday low of $93,029 during Asian trading hours on November 17—its weakest level since April 12.

Bitcoin price has confirmed a death cross on the daily chart — Nov. 17 Source Crypto.news

Liquidations surge while rate-cut expectations weaken

More than $243 million in Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated within the last 24 hours, with long traders taking the sharpest hit. In total, long positions accounted for $136.6 million of the wipeouts—a sign that leveraged traders were significantly overexposed to bullish momentum despite deteriorating market conditions.

Liquidation events of this scale can force exchanges to automatically close positions when margin levels fall too low, often generating heavy sell pressure. This dynamic has contributed to volatility in the Bitcoin price, similar to last month’s dramatic event in which over $20 billion was flushed out of the market in a single day.

Macroeconomic factors also weighed on sentiment. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have sharply declined, with odds of a 25-basis-point cut falling to 43.9%. Prediction market Polymarket reflects similar market skepticism, showing a 46% probability—down from over 80% at the beginning of November.

With declining expectations for monetary easing, the Bitcoin price remains vulnerable to further downside as investors shift away from high-risk assets.

ETF outflows signal weakening institutional confidence

Institutional activity in the spot Bitcoin ETF market has also contributed to selling pressure. The 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $2.3 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks, according to SoSoValue data. Sustained withdrawals from these funds indicate that large investors are reducing their exposure, which continues to exert downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

A weakening institutional bid is historically one of the strongest indicators of medium-term market softness. Analysts warn that without renewed demand from ETF issuers, custodians, and asset managers, the Bitcoin price may continue to drift toward lower support levels.

Technical indicators flip bearish as death cross forms

Market technicians note that the Bitcoin price has triggered a bearish signal known as a “death cross”—a formation that occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. Historically, this pattern has often preceded extended downside periods.

The weekly chart also closed below the 50-day exponential moving average for the first time since August 2023, further strengthening bearish momentum.

A widely-followed analyst, Ted (@TedPillows), highlighted the signal on social media:
“$BTC is about to close its first weekly candle below EMA-50 since August 2023. This isn’t looking good.” — Ted (@TedPillows)

Source: X@TexPillows

The Aroon indicator reinforces the shift in momentum, with the Aroon Up metric at 92.86% and the Aroon Down at 0%, suggesting that sellers currently dominate the market direction.

Short-term support for the Bitcoin price now sits in the $93,770 to $94,000 range. A confirmed breakdown could open the door to a decline toward the $90,000 psychological threshold, or potentially lower if selling pressure intensifies.

Outlook: more downside unless macro conditions shift

As traders navigate the combination of weakening ETF demand, reduced expectations of rate cuts, and heavy derivative liquidations, the Bitcoin price remains under significant pressure. Without a meaningful shift in macroeconomic outlook or renewed institutional inflows, analysts warn that near-term recovery may be limited.

11/18/2025

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