Garlinghouse gives CLARITY Act 90% odds as Congress races March 1 stablecoin deadline

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is giving the CLARITY Act nine-in-ten odds of passing by April, but first, Congress has until March 1 to break a stalemate over whether stablecoin issuers can pay yield to holders, a dispute that banks say threatens the deposit system and that the crypto industry says is non-negotiable.

News outlets report that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse now believes there’s a roughly 90 % chance the bill will pass by April 2026.

Despite political gridlock, markets responded positively — total crypto market capitalization reached approximately $2.32 trillion. The outcome of the stablecoin yield debate remains the principal near-term catalyst, with institutional actors and on-chain market activity watching the developments closely.

1. Regulatory Landscape Overview

The CLARITY Act aims to provide statutory clarity on which U.S. regulators — the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — oversee various digital assets. The bill would codify functional tests for asset classification, replacing decades of enforcement ambiguity with defined regulatory regimes. Such clarity could unlock institutional capital currently sidelined by legal uncertainty.

Recent news suggests that White House-led negotiations have boosted momentum for bipartisan passage. However, Senate proceedings remain delayed due to unresolved stablecoin provisions and industry objections.

2. Stablecoin Yield Debate & Market Impact

Stablecoin yield — whether issuers or platforms can offer interest or rewards on holdings — is the core sticking point in legislative negotiations. Banks argue such yields pose systemic risk and could incentivize deposit migration away from traditional banking, whereas the crypto industry contends that regulated yield structures are essential for competitive U.S. stablecoin issuers such as USD Coin (USDC) and PayPal USD (PYUSD).

If unresolved by March 1, the legislative package may stall or see revised language that weakens industry objectives. Market sentiment suggests that a compromise likely allowing modest yields under regulatory safeguards would be bullish for compliant stablecoins and DeFi protocols reliant on stablecoin liquidity.

3. Institutional Integration — XRP & Banking Infrastructure

Recent reports from multiple news outlets indicate increasing institutional engagement with XRP and its underlying settlement infrastructure:

• According to Cointelegraph, Société Générale’s digital arm SG-FORGE has expanded its euro-denominated stablecoin deployment to include the XRP Ledger (XRPL) — joining Ethereum and Solana networks — marking meaningful cross-chain institutional adoption.
• DailyCoin and other crypto news sources report that SWIFT — the global interbank payments network — is experimenting with blockchain-enabled payment rails, potentially involving Ripple-linked infrastructure in pilot deployments.
• A Times Tabloid article describes leaked commentary suggesting XRP technology may already be integrated into evolving SWIFT payment infrastructure, though details await official confirmation.
• Additionally, reportings indicate that Japan’s SBI Holdings, a major financial institution and Ripple collaborator, signed a partnership to provide technical support for XRPL-based services, positioning Asia as an advanced adoption region.

These developments reflect growing institutional confidence in XRPL’s utility for stablecoin deployments, cross-border settlement experiments, and multi-chain tokenization strategies.

4. Market Sentiment, Price Pressure & Narrative Shifts

Market sentiment remains highly correlated with regulatory news flow and institutional integration narratives. News coverage highlights that prediction markets and executives (e.g., Garlinghouse) view the CLARITY Act’s passage probability at historically elevated levels, often above ~80 % as of late February.

Additionally, XRP’s real-world asset growth — including increased tokenized assets and banking stablecoin initiatives — has been highlighted in several financial news outlets, signaling wider utility beyond pure speculative trading.

5. Winners & Losers — Updated Positioning

Potential Winners:

• XRP & XRPL-linked assets: Institutional integration narratives and regulatory clarity improves settlement layer prospects.
• Institutional banks partnering with XRPL: Adoption of stablecoins and blockchain rails could deepen bank participation.
• Compliant stablecoins (USDC, PYUSD): Reward structures could be permitted under revised regulatory compromises.

Conditional Winners:

• DeFi protocols reliant on stablecoin liquidity if compliant yield is permitted.
• Layer-1 networks servicing institutional RWA demand.

Pressure Zones:

• Traditional banking sectors resisting yield for digital assets.
• Offshore stablecoin issuers may face heightened competition if U.S. regulatory frameworks accelerate adoption of compliant onshore alternatives.

6. Risk Assessment — Legislative & Institutional

The primary risk remains legislative delay or adverse amendments to yield provisions, potentially resulting in market pullbacks. Losses on prediction markets and renewed banking objections could diminish near-term clarity expectations.

Institutionally, pilot infrastructure deployment stories (e.g., SWIFT, banks, SG-FORGE) are intriguing but not universally confirmed by official statements. Independent verification from SWIFT or major banks remains pending.

7. Macro & Competitive Angle

U.S. regulatory clarity would position domestic markets more favorably relative to international frameworks — especially the European Union’s MiCA regime, an operational legal structure shaping crypto regulation since late 2024. MiCA compliance has already enabled European institutional stablecoin products that may compete with U.S. alternatives. continued delays by Congress risk ceding market leadership to rival jurisdictions.

Watch List

Final Takeaway

The CLARITY Act remains the structural fulcrum.

But the narrative has evolved.If regulatory clarity converges with SWIFT-level institutional integration, XRP transitions from legal battleground asset to infrastructure-layer settlement instrument. That would mark a regime shift — not just for XRP, but for how digital assets interface with global finance.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.