The great delusion: Why everyone believes their crypto will moon

The idea that “this coin will moon” is not just optimism—it is a pattern. Across crypto markets, investors consistently behave as though exponential gains are inevitable. This is the core of the great delusion, a belief system sustained not by data, but by a powerful mix of storytelling, selective memory, and structural incentives.

What makes this delusion dangerous is not that it is entirely false—but that it is partially true. Real people have made millions. Real people have lost everything. And it is precisely this mix of outcomes that keeps the belief alive.

The success stories that fuel the delusion

No story captures the emotional pull of the great delusion better than that of Glauber Contessoto, widely known as the “Dogecoin millionaire.”

After discovering Dogecoin on Reddit, he invested over $180,000—essentially his life savings. Within two months, his holdings surged past $1 million.

“I was up all night staring at my screen,” he said, describing the moment his portfolio exploded in value. (CNBC)

At its peak, his investment reportedly exceeded $3 million before dropping significantly during market corrections.

This is the kind of story that sustains the great delusion. It reinforces the belief that life-changing wealth is not only possible—but repeatable.

But what is often overlooked is volatility. Contessoto’s wealth fluctuated dramatically, at one point losing over $1.8 million in value before partial recovery.

The takeaway is not just that people win—it’s that even the winners are riding instability, not certainty.

The invisible graveyard of losses

For every visible success, there are countless hidden failures. The great delusion survives because these stories rarely circulate with the same intensity.

Consider the case of 2021 Squid Game cryptocurrency scam. The token surged dramatically, fueled by hype and branding tied to a popular Netflix series. Investors rushed in, believing they had found the next big opportunity.

But there was a fatal flaw: buyers could not sell.

Within days, the project collapsed to zero, and its creators disappeared with an estimated $3 million.

This was not a fringe incident—it was a textbook example of how belief, urgency, and hype can override basic due diligence.

A more systemic illustration comes from global “pig-butchering” scams. In one documented case, a victim invested his life savings after being emotionally manipulated online, only to discover the entire crypto platform was fake.

These stories highlight a critical truth: the great delusion is not just about optimism—it is about vulnerability.

When belief becomes identity

Beyond profit and loss, crypto often becomes personal. Communities form around assets, turning investments into identities.

The rise of Dogecoin itself illustrates this. Originally created as a joke, it reached tens of billions in market value, driven largely by community enthusiasm and cultural momentum rather than utility.

Investors are not just buying tokens—they are buying into narratives:

• A movement
• A rebellion against traditional finance
• A shared belief in future wealth

This explains why skepticism is often rejected. Once belief becomes identity, questioning a coin feels like questioning a community.

The great delusion thrives in these environments because it is constantly reinforced. Doubt is filtered out. Optimism is amplified.

The cost of misunderstanding risk

Some of the most powerful stories in crypto are not about gains—but about irreversible mistakes.

Take James Howells, who accidentally discarded a hard drive containing 7,500 bitcoins now worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Or consider early users like Laszlo Hanyecz, who spent 10,000 BTC on two pizzas—an amount now worth hundreds of millions.

These stories are often framed as missed opportunities. But they also reveal something deeper: the unpredictability of value in crypto markets.

Even more extreme is the case of OneCoin, led by Ruja Ignatova, where investors around the world poured money into what was later revealed to be a fraudulent scheme. Many lost life savings, with some even losing homes. (Wikipedia)

In each of these cases, belief played a central role:

• Belief in future value
• Belief in legitimacy
• Belief in timing

And in each case, that belief came at a cost.

Conclusion: the great delusion persists—for a reason

The great delusion endures because it is built on real outcomes. People do become millionaires. Coins do surge unexpectedly. Life-changing gains do happen.

But these truths are incomplete.

What is less visible but far more common is:

• Volatility mistaken for growth
• Hype mistaken for value
• Hope mistaken for strategy

Crypto did not invent these behaviors. It simply accelerated them.

The challenge for investors is not to reject the possibility of gains—but to recognize the difference between probability and narrative.

Because as long as stories of sudden wealth dominate attention, the great delusion will continue to shape decisions, distort expectations, and define the crypto market’s most persistent belief:

That every coin is just one surge away from the moon.