- Trending
- Comments
- Latest
The government is back open. Federal workers are getting paid. National parks are scrubbing toilets again.
But in the crypto markets, the damage from the 43-day shutdown runs deeper than most realize. While Washington argued over Affordable Care Act subsidies for six straight weeks, the United States permanently lost the October jobs report — one of the most important economic data points of the year.
For the first time since World War II, the Bureau of Labor Statistics missed a monthly release. The November CPI print was delayed indefinitely. The Fed is now heading into its December rate decision with zero fresh labor-market data.
For crypto, an asset class that lives and dies by macro liquidity signals, the timing couldn’t be worse.
| Data Point | Normal Release Date | 2025 Status | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| October Nonfarm Payrolls | Nov 1 | Permanently cancelled | Most watched employment number — gone |
| October Unemployment Rate | Nov 1 | Permanently cancelled | Fed’s dual mandate just lost one pillar |
| November CPI | Nov 13 | Delayed → unknown | Inflation expectations now uncertain |
| Q3 GDP (second estimate) | Nov 26 | Delayed | Growth narrative incomplete |
“This creates a blind spot the size of Texas right when the Fed needs clarity the most,” former Fed economist Claudia Sahm told Bloomberg on November 13. “We’re making trillion-dollar decisions with 2019-level data.”
While the shutdown dragged on, digital assets took a beating:
The pain may only be half over. Without October jobs data, the Fed can’t confidently pivot to the rate cuts the market was pricing in. Every algorithm, every risk-parity fund, every leveraged perpetual trader is now operating on outdated information and incomplete datasets.
“Crypto just got sacrificed on the altar of Washington dysfunction,” @CryptoWhale wrote on November 13, a post that’s already gained so much attention. “No jobs data = no risk-on = alts stay dead until 2026.”
The Fed meets December 17. Markets are currently pricing:
But with zero labor-market prints since September, Chair Powell is essentially making policy decisions with half the usual information. Four trillion dollars in crypto market cap hangs in the balance.
“Imagine trying to land a plane in dense fog with half the instruments broken,” says Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures. “That’s December for crypto right now.”
Some market participants are taking an optimistic view: less data equals more chaos, which equals higher Bitcoin volatility, which eventually means upside.
The order books tell a different story. CME Bitcoin futures open interest sits at 2024 lows. The Coinbase premium has turned negative. Stablecoin inflows have flatlined. The smart money isn’t buying the dip — they’re parking capital in T-bills yielding 4.8%.
Chaos without a clear dovish signal isn’t opportunity. It’s just downside volatility in disguise.
Washington fought over healthcare subsidies. Forty-two million Americans worried about food stamps. Crypto lost $680 billion and its most important macro catalyst.
The government is back open, but the Federal Reserve remains in the dark. With the December meeting approaching and no clear path forward on labor market conditions, crypto markets face weeks of uncertainty driven not by innovation, adoption, or regulation — but by the absence of information that should have been routine.
The data isn’t coming back. The question now is whether crypto can find its footing without it.
