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The long awaited green light for a Solana exchange traded fund (ETF) may be closer than ever with Solana ETF approval odds now standing at 100% according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
“Honestly, the odds are really 100% now,” Balchunas wrote in a Sept. 30 X post, attributing the shift in Solana ETF approval odds to fresh regulatory developments that have stripped away most of the usual hurdles.
Balchunas explained that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to adopt generic listing standards for crypto linked commodity trusts has effectively rendered the traditional 19b-4 process obsolete. This update is a major reason why Solana ETF approval odds have now surged to certainty.
Under the old system, ETF issuers had to file a 19b-4 form triggering a statutory review timeline of up to 240 days. But with the SEC’s new standards,that timeline no longer applies. Instead, final approval now depends solely on S-1 registration statements requiring sign off from the Division of Corporation Finance. This structural change, Balchunas argues has turned Solana ETF approval odds into a near lock.
As of Sept. 30, multiple ETF issuers had already submitted amended filings to align with the new framework leaving only the S-1 approvals as the last step before launch.
“The baby could come any day. Be ready,”
Balchunas added, further emphasizing the certainty of Solana ETF approval odds.
The SEC’s move to withdraw delay notices on Sept. 29 added another boost to Solana ETF approval odds. For months, the commission had been holding back decisions on various altcoin ETF proposals including those tied to Solana, XRP, Litecoin and Cardano. With these delay notices now gone, the path is clear for final approvals without further postponements.
The cryptocurrency market has been anticipating altcoin ETF approvals ever since Ethereum spot ETFs were signed off last year. Analysts now describe October as “ETF Month,” expecting a wave of approvals to hit the market. This environment has only strengthened Solana ETF approval odds in the eyes of investors and industry experts.
According to crypto.news analysts, a Solana ETF approval could be the catalyst that drives SOL’s price toward $260. At the time of writing, Solana (SOL) traded at $210.61, up 1.1% on the day momentum that aligns with the rising certainty of Solana ETF approval odds.
