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Barclays issued a bearish outlook for cryptocurrency markets in 2026, predicting a continued decline in spot trading volumes as retail interest fades and near-term catalysts remain scarce.
In a year-end research report, the investment bank warned that digital asset exchanges—particularly retail-focused platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood—face revenue headwinds from shrinking trading activity.
Barclays downgraded its price target for Coinbase, citing the volume slump and rising operational costs despite the company’s push into derivatives and tokenization.
The forecast marks a shift from the volatile bull cycles that historically drove crypto trading, with Barclays analysts noting “no clear catalysts in sight” to reverse the downturn in 2026.
Barclays emphasized that past crypto bull cycles were fueled by spikes in trading volume often triggered by speculative demand and heightened volatility. Today, the dynamic is fading with fewer active traders contributing to spot trading volume and limited market volatility discouraging new entrants.
Historically, cryptocurrency markets have responded to major events such as regulatory announcements, product launches, and political developments which temporarily boosted trading volume.
The bank cited examples including the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in March 2024 and rallies following a pro crypto U.S. election outcome. However, Barclays sees few comparable catalysts for spot trading volume growth in 2026.
Regulatory clarity in the U.S., particularly through the proposed CLARITY Act could support long term increases in spot trading volume by defining whether digital assets fall under securities or commodities law and streamlining oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
The report notes that while regulatory progress may help, effects on spot trading volume would likely be gradual rather than immediate.
Coinbase, a key U.S. exchange, received attention in the Barclays report for its efforts to diversify revenue amid declining spot trading volume. The company is expanding into derivatives, tokenized equities and other initiatives, supported by acquisitions.
Barclays revised its price target downward, citing shrinking spot trading volume and rising operational costs despite these longer term investments.
Tokenization continues to attract interest from both crypto native firms and traditional financial institutions including BlackRock and Robinhood.
While pilot programs and early offerings may eventually boost spot trading volume, Barclays described tokenization as a long term growth opportunity unlikely to significantly impact 2026 earnings.
Despite a more favorable political climate for crypto following recent U.S. elections, Barclays cautioned that optimism is largely priced in and legislative progress including the CLARITY Act faces potential delays.
The report concludes that 2026 will be a transitional year for the cryptocurrency sector with companies prioritizing compliance, infrastructure and tokenized finance even as spot trading volume remains muted.
