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The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted no-action relief to Bitnomial, allowing the exchange to launch a prediction market offering event contracts on cryptocurrency prices and economic indicators under strict full-collateralization requirements.
The CFTC’s no-action letter clears a key regulatory hurdle for the Bitnomial prediction market, allowing the firm to offer event contracts linked to cryptocurrency prices, economic indicators, and other measurable real-world outcomes. The letter effectively confirms that the regulator does not intend to take enforcement action, provided Bitnomial complies with specified conditions.
Following the announcement, Bitnomial executives expressed optimism about the company’s trajectory and its ambitions beyond the US market. Sources familiar with the matter described the letter as a “significant milestone,” — sources close to the situation, noting that the relief exempts Bitnomial from certain reporting requirements that typically apply to asset swaps under existing US regulations.
Those reporting rules, the sources added, pose operational challenges for fast-paced platforms like prediction markets, where a high volume of swaps can occur within a single trading day. By granting the no-action relief, regulators have provided the Bitnomial prediction market with a clearer compliance path while preserving oversight authority.
Despite the regulatory green light, the CFTC’s decision comes with clear expectations. Reports indicate that before fully launching its event contracts, the Bitnomial prediction market must publish detailed disclosures on its website, including precise timestamps and sales data for its contract markets.
In addition, the firm is required to submit comprehensive information to the CFTC upon request. Regulators also emphasized strict risk controls, including the requirement that all open positions be fully collateralized.
Sources with direct knowledge of the discussions said regulators insisted on a conservative structure. “Financial regulators required Bitnomial to refrain from utilising leverage and to implement a 1:1 backing,” — sources familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the confidential nature of the process.
The insistence on a 1:1 backing is aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity and protecting the stability of the Bitnomial prediction market, particularly during periods of heightened volatility. Such measures align with broader regulatory priorities to prevent systemic risks while allowing innovation within controlled parameters.
The no-action letter has been widely interpreted as evidence that US regulators are becoming more receptive to prediction markets, especially as blockchain technology introduces new financial instruments not previously supported by traditional systems.
Analysts tracking market behavior observed a surge in public interest in prediction markets during the 2024 US elections, when many participants argued that market-based forecasting offered more accurate insights than conventional opinion polls.
Since then, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have gained cultural relevance and investor attention, reinforcing the context in which the Bitnomial prediction market is entering the space.
Supporters of prediction markets maintain that transparent, well-regulated platforms can serve as valuable tools for aggregating information and sentiment. At the same time, regulators have remained cautious, balancing innovation against the need for consumer protection and market integrity.
The growing visibility of prediction markets has extended beyond financial circles. In September 2025, an episode of South Park featured both Kalshi and Polymarket, introducing the concept to a broader audience and accelerating public awareness.
Reports following the episode alleged that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket the following month, valuing the platform at $9 billion. While the Bitnomial prediction market operates under a different regulatory structure, the broader trend highlights increasing institutional interest in event-based trading.
Meanwhile, Coinbase announced plans in December to acquire The Clearing Company, a fintech startup developing an on-chain prediction market platform. The acquisition is expected to close in January 2026, just ahead of the US midterm elections—a period analysts expect to drive higher trading volumes across prediction markets.
As election season approaches, analysts anticipate a rise in activity across platforms, including the Bitnomial prediction market, as traders seek exposure to political and economic outcomes. With CFTC no-action relief in place, Bitnomial enters this evolving landscape positioned as one of the few US-based, regulator-cleared operators in the sector.
