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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse now puts the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law by April at 90%, citing narrowing Senate disagreements and recent White House meetings as signs that the industry’s most consequential regulatory battle may be approaching its final stage.
Speaking after recent meetings at the White House and amid ongoing Senate negotiations in Washington, Garlinghouse pointed to narrowing policy disagreements as a sign that the long-debated legislation could soon deliver the regulatory certainty crypto investors have sought for years.
His remarks come at a pivotal moment for XRP, which was trading around $1.40 at press time, and for a broader market still navigating legal ambiguity. For crypto investors, Clarity bill approval is not simply a legislative milestone — it could redefine how digital assets integrate with the U.S. financial system.
Garlinghouse shared his updated outlook during an appearance on Fox Business, revising his previous estimate upward.
“I now see a 90% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law by April 2026,” — Brad Garlinghouse, Chief Executive Officer, Ripple.
He previously placed the odds closer to 80%, but said recent discussions among lawmakers, the White House, crypto firms, and banking representatives have improved the outlook for Clarity bill approval. According to Garlinghouse, negotiations have shifted from broad regulatory disagreements to resolving technical details — a sign that consensus may be forming.
The House of Representatives passed the Clarity Act in 2025 with bipartisan support, but Senate consideration has taken longer. Officials involved in the talks are reportedly aiming to settle outstanding disputes by March 1, 2026, a timeline supporters view as critical before legislative priorities shift ahead of midterm elections.
Garlinghouse cautioned that no outcome is guaranteed.
He acknowledged during his interview that “no one can fully predict what the Senate or Congress will do,” but emphasized that prediction markets have shown rising confidence in Clarity bill approval following supportive comments from Senator Bernie Moreno.
Despite growing optimism around Clarity bill approval, one major issue continues to slow final passage: whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield on reserve-backed assets.
Banking groups argue that if stablecoins pay yield, deposits could flow out of traditional banks and into digital assets, potentially affecting bank capital and liquidity. Crypto firms counter that restricting such features could push innovation offshore and undermine U.S. competitiveness.
This debate has created a temporary roadblock, even as broader agreement emerges on how to divide oversight responsibilities between regulators.
The Clarity Act would assign securities-like tokens to the Securities and Exchange Commission and commodity-like assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a framework supporters say would reduce legal uncertainty and compliance risk.
Garlinghouse has stressed that prolonged regulatory ambiguity has constrained innovation, citing Ripple’s own legal battles as an example of partial but incomplete progress. For crypto investors, Clarity bill approval represents the potential end of years of case-by-case enforcement shaping market outcomes.
XRP’s price trajectory is closely tied to expectations around Clarity bill approval. While certain regulatory actions have improved the token’s standing including the end of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit market participants argue that comprehensive federal legislation would provide the final layer of certainty needed for deeper institutional adoption.
Some analysts believe that if Clarity bill approval formally classifies XRP in a way that removes lingering ambiguity, the token could transition from primarily retail-driven speculation to broader institutional use.
Google’s AI model Gemini outlined three potential stages for XRP under increasingly optimistic scenarios. In the first stage, with official regulatory clarity and classification as a digital commodity, Gemini projected a potential range between $5 and $10. In a second stage involving integration into U.S. domestic payment systems and use by Tier-1 banks for liquidity management Gemini suggested a range between $15 and $30.
Under the most bullish scenario, Gemini estimated XRP could exceed $100 if it became a primary liquidity layer within the U.S. banking network. In that case, the token’s valuation would need to scale in proportion to the volume of capital it facilitates.
Gemini noted that liquidity depth would be critical. At $1.40, a $1 billion transfer could absorb significant exchange liquidity and cause volatility. At $20 or more, the market could theoretically handle multi-billion-dollar transfers with less disruption.
While such projections are speculative, they illustrate how closely XRP’s outlook is tied to Clarity bill approval and the potential for seamless integration with U.S. banks.
For crypto investors, Clarity bill approval would signal more than regulatory housekeeping. It would establish a federal framework clarifying which digital assets fall under securities law and which are treated as commodities. That clarity could lower compliance risks for exchanges, custodians, and institutional participants, potentially unlocking new capital inflows.
At the same time, uncertainty remains. Stablecoin yield provisions must still be resolved, and Senate negotiations could introduce amendments that reshape the final bill. Political dynamics ahead of elections may also influence the pace of action.
Garlinghouse’s 90% estimate reflects rising confidence, but the legislative process is not complete. Investors evaluating XRP and other altcoins must weigh both the opportunity presented by Clarity bill approval and the possibility of further delays.
As Washington debates the future of digital asset oversight, one conclusion is clear: regulatory clarity is no longer a distant aspiration but an imminent decision point. For XRP holders and the broader crypto market, the coming weeks may determine whether Clarity bill approval delivers the structural certainty long sought by the industry.
