Standard Chartered predicts UAE growth surge as oil exports rebound

Standard Chartered forecasts stronger UAE business activity in the third quarter of 2026, citing resilient non-oil growth, easing regional tensions, and a near-full recovery in oil exports.

The bank’s analysis found that the UAE’s June S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index remained above the 50 threshold, signaling continued non-oil expansion even during the kinetic phase of the recent regional conflict. Domestic consumption and investment have driven the growth, while external demand is expected to recover gradually as regional trade flows normalize.

“The UAE’s latest PMI reading reinforces the resilience of its non-oil economy and private sector activity through a period of regional uncertainty,” said Rola Abu Manneh, CEO for the UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered.

“Domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth, while the gradual recovery in external demand provides a more constructive outlook for the third quarter.”

Standard Chartered identified three factors likely to support momentum in the third quarter: softer oil prices, a recovering job market, and accelerating investment growth as regional governments continue diversifying trade corridors.

The bank’s analysis also noted that the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with earlier rerouting of oil exports, has driven a near-full recovery in the UAE’s oil exports. Oil exports across the wider region are recovering at a more gradual pace.

About Standard Chartered: Standard Chartered is an international banking group with a presence in 54 markets. The company is listed on the London and Hong Kong stock exchanges.