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Altcoins are trading an average of 27% below their 200-day simple moving average across major exchanges, according to CryptoQuant analysis, as Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization climbs to 59% and shows little sign of reversing.
The technical breakdown, most severe on Binance where altcoins sit 30.8% below the widely-watched indicator, suggests a sustained rotation into alternative tokens remains months away despite periodic relief rallies that have failed to hold.
The strain is evident across major exchanges. On Binance, which offers the deepest liquidity, the average altcoin trades about 30.8% below its 200-day moving average.
Similar conditions appear on Bybit, Gate.io and KuCoin, reinforcing that the weakness is market wide and not confined to a single venue another setback for Altcoin season optimism.
A handful of platforms, such as OKX, have shown slightly better resilience likely due to token mix or trader positioning.
However, these isolated pockets of strength have not been enough to reverse the broader downtrend or revive Altcoin season momentum.
Meanwhile, exchanges like Kraken and Crypto.com have recorded steeper drawdowns highlighting how quickly liquidity thins when confidence fades.
Bitcoin now commands roughly 58–59% of total crypto market capitalization following a steady climb. With dominance holding firm, capital rotation into altcoins has been limited, keeping rallies brief and narrow.
As dominance presses toward the 60% level, expectations for a near-term Altcoin season have largely diminished, and further downside for altcoins remains possible if BTC strength persists.
Market sentiment reinforces this cautious stance. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained stuck in fear or extreme fear territory signaling reluctance among investors to increase risk exposure.
Trading engagement and speculative activity have fallen by nearly half over recent weeks reflecting waning retail interest conditions that historically do not favor Altcoin season.
Even industry leaders are tempering expectations. The CEO of Bitget recently suggested that an Altcoin season may not materialize in 2025 or 2026 pointing to limited upside for many altcoins and a growing institutional focus on Bitcoin and real world asset exposure.
On-chain metrics further explain why capital continues to flow toward Bitcoin rather than fueling Altcoin season. Another CryptoQuant analyst highlighted that Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross recently dropped to extremely low levels near -0.58 a zone historically seen when prices fall faster than on-chain activity.
The indicator has since rebounded toward -0.32 implying Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to network usage while entering a phase often associated with steady accumulation.
Historically, these setups tend to benefit Bitcoin first. Altcoins typically gain traction only after sentiment improves and liquidity broadens prerequisites that are still missing.
Until Bitcoin dominance decisively rolls over and risk appetite returns, Altcoin season is likely to remain on hold.
