Over $3.33 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, marking one of the most significant crypto derivatives events of 2025. This comes just hours after cooler-than-anticipated US inflation data reshaped market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—a development that could dramatically influence crypto prices in the coming weeks.
Over $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire with bearish sentiment
Deribit data reveals $2.76 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will mature, including 26,543 BTC contracts and 219,986 ETH contracts. The put-to-call ratios—1.02 for Bitcoin and 1.36 for Ethereum—signal prevailing bearish sentiment, with traders hedging against potential downside moves.
The “max pain” points—100,000 for Bitcoin and 2,300 for Ethereum—suggest where option sellers would face the least payout obligations. As of press time, BTC traded at 103,912 and ETH at 2,572, both above these thresholds but vulnerable to last-minute volatility.
“BTC skew is neutral…price action could get interesting,” Deribit analysts noted, hinting at potential turbulence as traders adjust positions.
Greeks.live analysts observed defensive maneuvers among traders: “Several traders are taking profits on long calls and rotating into more defensive positions as they feel everybody rushed in.” This cautious approach reflects uncertainty around how macroeconomic shifts will impact Bitcoin and Ethereum options pricing.
US inflation data reshapes crypto market outlook
April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled to 2.3%—the lowest since February 2021—while Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation dipped to 2.4%, below the 2.5% forecast. The data has reignited speculation about Fed rate cuts, despite earlier warnings from Chair Jerome Powell about maintaining higher rates.
“Rate cuts are back in play, markets aren’t ready for what’s coming,” tweeted crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader. Lower inflation typically boosts risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum options, as investors seek leveraged exposure in a looser monetary environment.
However, the immediate market reaction was muted. “We’re seeing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario,” said Marcus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. “Traders priced in dovish Fed expectations weeks ago, so the actual CPI print didn’t trigger massive upside.”
Why this options expiry matters more than usual
Today’s Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry coincides with three critical factors:
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Macro uncertainty – The Fed’s next move remains unclear, with some economists warning of “stagflation” risks.
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Elevated open interest – BTC options open interest rose 2.4% week-over-week, indicating heightened speculative activity.
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Ethereum’s underperformance – ETH’s higher put ratio (1.36 vs. BTC’s 1.02) suggests traders expect more downside.
“Ethereum’s max pain at $2,300 is particularly telling,” said Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. “The market is pricing in ETH’s weaker institutional demand compared to Bitcoin, especially with spot ETF delays.”
Short-term volatility vs. long-term bullish trends
While Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiries often cause intraday volatility, analysts emphasize the bigger picture.
“Options expiry is a speed bump, not a roadblock,” noted Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter. “The macro setup—potential rate cuts, weakening dollar—still favors crypto in Q3.”
Deribit’s data shows growing interest in longer-dated Bitcoin and Ethereum options, with September and December contracts seeing record volume. This suggests traders are positioning for a potential late-2025 rally.
What traders should watch next?
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Fed speakers – Any hints about rate cuts could trigger crypto rallies.
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ETF flows – Bitcoin ETF inflows surpassed $12 billion YTD; sustained demand may offset options-related selling.
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Ethereum’s regulatory clarity – Progress on spot ETH ETFs could reverse bearish Bitcoin and Ethereum options skew.
As the dust settles on today’s expiry, one thing is clear: Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets are no longer niche—they’re a frontline indicator of crypto’s evolving role in global finance.
“Crypto derivatives now drive spot markets as much as the other way around,” concluded K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde. “That’s the new reality.”
