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Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, has jumped to 49% odds on Polymarket to become the next Federal Reserve chair, a dramatic surge from just 3% days earlier that followed endorsements from President Donald Trump and economic advisor Kevin Hassett.
Polymarket data shows Rieder leading with implied odds of roughly 49%, a clear advantage over Warsh, who currently sits at about 28%. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller trails with approximately 10%, while Kevin Hassett — a key economic advisor to former President Donald Trump — stands near 7%.
Kalshi traders show a similar pattern. On that platform, Rieder’s probability edges even higher, hovering around 50%, while Warsh follows at 30% and Waller remains near 10%.
These numbers reinforce the same message: Fed chair predictions are consolidating around a single name, and that name is Rick Rieder.
Rieder’s resume explains much of the enthusiasm. As BlackRock’s global fixed-income chief, he oversees more than $2 trillion in bonds and related assets, placing him at the center of global debt markets. His regular commentary on interest rates, housing, and credit conditions has made him one of Wall Street’s most closely watched voices.
Market participants betting on Fed chair predictions see Rieder’s experience navigating inflation, liquidity, and rate cycles as a major advantage at a time when monetary policy remains politically and economically sensitive.
Rieder is also known for leaning toward lower interest rates when economic conditions allow — a stance that resonates with investors hoping for policy flexibility as growth concerns persist.
What makes Rieder’s rise particularly striking is how quickly it happened. Just days earlier, Polymarket priced him as a fringe candidate, with odds as low as 3%. By the end of last week, those numbers had surged past 40%, pushing him ahead of Warsh and reshaping Fed chair predictions almost overnight.
That dramatic shift reflects more than market speculation. Traders appear to be reacting to perceived political validation.
Following a recent meeting, Donald Trump reportedly described Rieder as a “very impressive” individual — a remark that traders quickly interpreted as meaningful. Around the same time, Kevin Hassett referred to Rieder as “the best bond guy” during a CNBC interview, adding further fuel to the rally.
For markets focused on Fed chair predictions, endorsements even informal ones matter.
Hassett himself was once viewed as a top contender. As Trump’s closest economic advisor, his name featured prominently in early betting markets. However, his probabilities have steadily declined as reports suggest Trump may prefer Hassett to remain in his current advisory role rather than move to the Federal Reserve.
That shift has further clarified Fed chair predictions, narrowing the field and strengthening Rieder’s position.
Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh remain in the mix, but momentum has clearly moved elsewhere.
Adding urgency to the market’s recalibration, Trump recently told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he is close to making a final choice. According to Trump, the list of candidates — once numbering around eleven — has now been reduced to “maybe one.”
That statement triggered immediate movement in Fed chair predictions on Kalshi, where traders raised Rieder’s implied odds to roughly 33%, nearly double their level from earlier in the week.
While Warsh still briefly retained an edge in some contracts at that time, the broader trend has since favored Rieder.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been overseeing the vetting process, has also indicated that an announcement is likely soon. His comments reinforced market confidence that the prolonged guessing game around Fed chair predictions may be nearing its end.
For traders, the convergence of political commentary, market expertise, and narrowing timelines has created a powerful narrative, one that increasingly centers on Rieder.
Prediction markets are not official forecasts, but they often reflect collective judgment from participants with money on the line. In this case, both Polymarket and Kalshi are sending the same signal Fed chair predictions are no longer wide open.
Whether Rick Rieder ultimately secures the nomination remains up to Trump. But for now, traders are betting that Wall Street’s top bond strategist is poised to take the most influential monetary policy role in the world.
And until an official announcement is made, Fed chair predictions suggest the race has a clear leader even if the final call has yet to be delivered.
