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Nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply may become unavailable for trading within the next decade, according to a new report by Fidelity Digital Assets. The asset management firm estimates that by 2032, around 8.3 million BTC or 42% of circulation will qualify as Bitcoin illiquid supply, significantly reducing coins available on the open market.
The analysis identifies two key groups driving this trend: long-term holders who have not moved their Bitcoin in at least seven years, and publicly traded companies holding more than 1,000 BTC. Fidelity applied a strict criterion, counting wallets whose balances increased each quarter or at least 90% of the time over the past four years.
“By the end of 2025, we project these two cohorts will hold more than six million Bitcoin, equal to over 28% of the total 21 million that will ever exist,” Fidelity researchers wrote.
The first cohort is long-term holders, often referred to as “diamond hands,” who historically resist selling even during volatile downturns. According to Fidelity, their supply has not decreased since 2016, underscoring a persistent accumulation pattern.
The second group consists of publicly traded companies that have integrated Bitcoin into their balance sheets. Data compiled by Bitbo shows there are currently 105 listed firms holding Bitcoin, with combined reserves exceeding 969,000 BTC, or roughly 4.6% of total supply. Notably, these firms have only recorded a single quarter of net selling in Q2 2022 suggesting strong conviction.
“Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is no longer an experiment,” said Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital. “Treasury allocations are becoming strategic, and that makes a substantial portion of Bitcoin illiquid supply effectively locked away.”
For investors, the rise of Bitcoin illiquid supply represents a double-edged sword. On one hand, fewer coins available on exchanges could create scarcity-driven price support over the long run. On the other, concentrated holdings in the hands of a few cohorts particularly corporations and whales raise the risk of sharp volatility if large amounts are sold.
At the end of Q2 2025, the combined holdings of long-term investors and corporate treasuries were valued at $628 billion, at an average acquisition price of $107,700 per BTC, according to Fidelity. That figure is double last year’s valuation, highlighting both rising conviction and rising exposure.
“Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed, but liquidity is not,” noted Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter. “The more coins that migrate into illiquid supply, the more sensitive the market becomes to marginal flows.”
The Fidelity report also raised concerns about large-scale selling. In the past 30 days alone, Bitcoin whales typically defined as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of Bitcoin, the largest outflow since mid-2022. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price fell by about 2%, according to CoinGecko.
While these sell-offs suggest that not all major holders are immovable, the long-term structural trend still points to rising illiquidity. If corporate treasuries continue to expand and long-term holders maintain discipline, Bitcoin illiquid supply could exceed 8.3 million BTC by Q2 2032.
For crypto investors, the report underscores the importance of monitoring liquidity metrics, not just total supply. Unlike traditional assets, where central banks can adjust issuance, Bitcoin’s 21 million cap makes shifts in illiquid supply a defining feature of market dynamics.
Fidelity did not account for potential future entrants, such as additional corporations or sovereign entities, which could further tighten circulating supply. If adoption accelerates, the proportion of Bitcoin illiquid supply could rise well above current projections.
In the meantime, investors face a market where scarcity may steadily increase but where sudden whale moves can still rattle sentiment. As one Fidelity researcher concluded: “Illiquidity is Bitcoin’s hidden supply curve, and it may shape price action for years to come.”
