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Gemini launched regulated prediction markets across all 50 US states on Monday following regulatory approval for its affiliate Gemini Titan, positioning the Winklevoss-founded exchange as one of the few federally licensed prediction market operators in the country.
The platform, called Gemini Predictions, received a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week. The approval allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events with near-instant execution and transparent settlement under federal oversight.
Separately, decentralized exchange PancakeSwap unveiled Probable on Tuesday, a new prediction market platform incubated by PancakeSwap and backed by YZi Labs, the venture firm founded by Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Gemini’s entry into prediction markets represents part of the exchange’s broader expansion beyond spot trading. The company has added staking, rewards, tokenized stocks, and now prediction markets to its platform.
The move comes as rivals including Coinbase and Crypto.com explore similar expansions. Gemini Predictions allows users to trade on real-world events through its CFTC-licensed affiliate, differentiating it from unregulated prediction market platforms.
PancakeSwap’s Probable will launch exclusively on BNB Chain with no fees initially. According to PancakeSwap, the platform will automatically convert deposited tokens into USDT on BNB Chain, eliminating manual swapping or bridging. Event outcomes and settlement will be verified using UMA’s Optimistic Oracle.
While PancakeSwap is supporting early development, Probable will operate as an independent platform. A launch date has not been announced.
The dual launches reflect growing demand for prediction markets, which gained momentum as platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket posted billions of dollars in monthly trading volumes beginning in October.
The trend has attracted attention from crypto-native firms and traditional financial players. Robinhood and MetaMask have also explored entering the space.
Kalshi secured a partnership with CNN, making it the network’s official prediction markets partner, and closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation.
Under the agreement, Kalshi’s real-time market data will be used in CNN’s newsroom to support reporting on politics, economics, and major cultural events.
Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi about becoming a liquidity provider as on-chain betting on real-world events draws attention from retail traders and institutional investors.
