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Portugal’s gambling regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to shut down operations in the country after the platform attracted $120 million in wagers on this weekend’s presidential election, joining France, Belgium, Italy and 27 other nations in cracking down on the crypto prediction market.
The move places Portugal alongside a growing list of jurisdictions tightening enforcement against decentralized prediction platforms that blur the line between financial speculation and online gambling.
Portugal’s gambling watchdog, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), confirmed that Polymarket is operating illegally in the country and does not hold a license to offer betting services. The regulator cited national laws that explicitly ban wagering on political outcomes.
According to Rádio Renascença, more than 103 million euros ($120 million) were wagered on Polymarket contracts tied to the Jan. 18 presidential election, prompting the regulator’s rapid intervention and accelerating the Polymarket crackdown.
“The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, as national law prohibits betting operations regarding political events, be they domestic or international,” the SRIJ said in a statement.
While Polymarket remains accessible at the time of writing, Portuguese authorities warned that internet service providers could soon be instructed to block the platform if it fails to comply.
Under Portugal’s 2015 online gambling framework, only a narrow set of activities are permitted, including sports betting, casino games, and horse racing. Betting on political events and other real-world outcomes falls outside the legal scope.
That distinction lies at the heart of the Polymarket crackdown. While Polymarket positions itself as a prediction market where users buy shares in potential outcomes, regulators across Europe increasingly classify such activity as unlicensed gambling.
“Prediction markets may use crypto rails, but legally they still look like betting platforms to many regulators,” said João Cunha, a Lisbon-based gaming law specialist. “That’s why the Polymarket crackdown keeps spreading.”
Portugal’s action is not occurring in isolation. The Polymarket crackdown has intensified globally as authorities scrutinize platforms that allow users to speculate on elections, geopolitical conflicts, and economic events.
Polymarket is currently restricted or banned in more than 30 countries, including Italy, Belgium, Singapore, Russia and Ukraine. In Belgium, the site has been formally blacklisted. France has implemented a partial restriction that places the platform in a “view-only” mode for local users.
Ukraine recently ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket, citing unlicensed gambling activity tied to war-related betting. That decision became one of the most high-profile chapters of the ongoing Polymarket crackdown.
Despite these measures, other prediction platforms such as Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless remain accessible in Portugal, highlighting uneven enforcement across jurisdictions.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has grown rapidly by allowing users to trade outcome-based contracts using stablecoins on blockchain infrastructure. Supporters argue the platform provides real-time insight into public sentiment and probabilistic forecasting.
Regulators, however, see a different picture—one that raises concerns about election integrity, consumer protection and illegal gambling.
“The volumes alone are enough to worry policymakers,” said Marta Silva, a European policy analyst. “Once election markets start attracting hundreds of millions in wagers, a Polymarket crackdown becomes almost inevitable.”
Portuguese officials echoed that concern, noting that political betting could undermine democratic processes and expose voters to manipulation.
Although the SRIJ has not yet ordered internet providers to block Polymarket, that option remains on the table. Similar enforcement steps have been taken in other European states as part of the broader Polymarket crackdown.
Blocking access through ISPs is often used as a last resort when platforms fail to comply voluntarily, but critics argue the approach is difficult to enforce fully in a decentralized internet environment.
Polymarket has not publicly commented on Portugal’s order as of publication.
Portugal’s decision underscores the growing regulatory tension between crypto innovation and national gambling laws. While Polymarket operates globally through blockchain rails, enforcement still happens at the country level—making regulatory arbitrage increasingly difficult.
Legal experts say the expanding Polymarket crackdown could push platforms to either seek formal licensing or pivot away from political markets altogether.
“Election betting is the flashpoint,” Cunha said. “As long as Polymarket offers political contracts, it will remain in regulators’ crosshairs.”
For now, Portugal’s ultimatum adds momentum to a regulatory trend that shows no sign of slowing. As election cycles intensify worldwide in 2025, authorities are expected to further coordinate enforcement actions.
Whether Polymarket adapts or continues to face jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction restrictions will determine how far the Polymarket crackdown ultimately goes.
One thing is clear: the era of unchallenged crypto-based prediction markets in Europe is rapidly coming to an end.
