Raoul Pal predicts spike in global crypto users, analysts decided

The latest crypto users prediction from Raoul Pal, former hedge fund manager and founder of Real Vision, has reignited debate over the future scale of digital assets. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, Pal suggested that the total number of crypto users could reach 4 billion by 2030 which is equivalent to one in every two people with internet access today.

Pal based his forecast on adoption curves, comparing the number of crypto wallets to internet IP addresses when both technologies first crossed 5 million users. He noted that the total crypto user base grew by 137% annually over the past nine years, reaching 659 million by the end of 2024. By comparison, internet adoption at a similar stage expanded at a slower 76% annual rate, with 187 million users by 2000.

“Adoption patterns suggest crypto is on track to outpace the internet,” — Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, in his X post.

According to his crypto users prediction, growth will moderate to 43% annually but still allow the ecosystem to cross 1 billion users by 2030.

$100 trillion market cap on the horizon?

Beyond sheer user numbers, Pal’s analysis also points to extraordinary financial growth. His crypto users prediction is tied to a market capitalization that he believes could exceed $100 trillion within the next decade, potentially as early as 2032.

Pal argued that two key forces underpin this outlook: currency debasement and widespread adoption.

“Debasement explains 90% of price action, while adoption explains 100% of outperformance versus debasement,” he wrote.

The implication for investors is that if adoption stays on track with Pal’s projections, crypto markets could expand more than 40-fold from their current levels.

Pushback over wallet-based assumptions

Not everyone is convinced by Pal’s bullish crypto users prediction. Some community members quickly challenged his methodology, pointing out that wallet counts can exaggerate true adoption.

One X user noted that project founders often create thousands of wallets to distribute tokens and simulate larger communities. Another admitted to personally creating a new wallet every six months for four years.

“Wallet data inflates the picture — it’s like counting email addresses instead of real users,” — Community respondent on X.

Pal dismissed the criticism, arguing that internet adoption metrics faced similar issues, since individuals often have multiple IP addresses. He suggested the overall trajectory still matters more than exact counts.

Supporting data varies widely. Triple-A, a B2B digital currency payments platform, estimated there were over 560 million crypto users by the end of 2024. By contrast, an October 2024 report from Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division suggested that the number of “real monthly active users” was closer to 30–60 million. The gap highlights the uncertainty in making any crypto users prediction.

What this means for investors

For investors, Pal’s crypto users prediction paints an ambitious picture of crypto’s future role in global finance. If his adoption thesis holds, digital assets could evolve into a mainstream asset class rivaling global equities and bonds. However, skepticism over wallet counts and the reliability of growth estimates underscores the risk of leaning too heavily on long-term forecasts.

“Forecasting is useful for spotting direction, not precise numbers,” — Carla Mendes, Senior Analyst, Chainalysis. “Even if Pal’s crypto users prediction overshoots, the broader takeaway is that adoption is growing at an unprecedented rate.”

Whether the future aligns with Pal’s vision or proves more modest, one reality remains: crypto adoption is accelerating, even if its scale is hard to pin down. For investors, staying ahead of the trend rather than debating the exact numbers may be the most practical takeaway from the ongoing crypto users prediction debate.

Ultimately, the most prudent approach for investors may be to view Pal’s crypto users prediction as a directional signal rather than a guaranteed outcome. By diversifying portfolios, monitoring regulatory developments, and tracking real adoption metrics such as active users, transaction volumes, and institutional participation as investors can position themselves to benefit from the sector’s growth while mitigating risks tied to over-optimistic projections.