Bitcoin enters the final week of February facing a dense slate of macro catalysts — including Fed speeches from Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic, weekly jobless claims, and the Producer Price Index — any one of which could shift rate-cut expectations and trigger price swings analysts estimate at 3% to 5%.
Recent data has painted a conflicted picture: inflation pressures have moderated slightly, unemployment claims remain relatively low, and central-bank commentary has leaned careful rather than decisive. That ambiguity has kept investors glued to the calendar of US Economic Events, searching for confirmation about the direction of monetary policy and liquidity conditions.
Federal Reserve Speakers Take Center Stage
A packed speaking schedule from officials at the Federal Reserve tops the list of US Economic Events traders are tracking. Appearances from Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, and Raphael Bostic are scheduled across multiple days, creating a dense stream of policy commentary.
Markets currently anticipate two or three interest-rate cuts in 2026, but tone matters as much as substance in these US Economic Events. Historically, both Waller and Bostic have emphasized vigilance against inflation and a data-driven approach. If their remarks reinforce concern about lingering price pressures, bond yields could climb and the dollar could strengthen—conditions that often weigh on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, if policymakers highlight signs of slowing growth or softening employment, traders may interpret that as groundwork for looser policy. In that case, risk assets—including crypto—could benefit.
Analysts note that clustered speeches heighten volatility risk because inconsistent messaging during these US Economic Events can spark rapid repricing in rate expectations.
Jobless Claims: A Real-Time Labor Gauge
Another critical set of US Economic Events arrives with weekly initial jobless claims, widely viewed as one of the most timely snapshots of labor-market health. The latest reading surprised forecasters by dropping to 206,000, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient employment backdrop.
Economists now expect around 215,000. Should claims fall below 210,000, it would signal continued labor strength and could embolden hawkish policymakers during upcoming US Economic Events appearances. Strong employment typically delays expectations for rate cuts, tightening financial conditions and sometimes limiting upside for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, a jump above 225,000 could signal cooling momentum. That scenario would likely intensify recession worries and raise the probability of policy easing. Traders often respond to such outcomes by increasing exposure to assets that benefit from liquidity expansion.
Because claims data can move Bitcoin by up to roughly 1% in either direction, surprises within these US Economic Events could spark amplified reactions if they contradict central-bank rhetoric.
Producer Price Index: Inflation Pipeline Check
The week concludes with another pivotal entry on the calendar of US Economic Events: the Producer Price Index (PPI). This measure tracks wholesale-level inflation and often foreshadows consumer price trends. Forecasts suggest headline and core readings near 3.0% year over year.
If core PPI exceeds roughly 3.2%, inflation fears could resurface, potentially lifting real yields and the dollar. Such a result would echo recent post-data sell-offs and might pressure Bitcoin. But a softer-than-expected print below about 2.8% would reinforce the disinflation narrative and strengthen the case for monetary easing—conditions historically favorable for crypto markets.
Because PPI lands at month’s end, it often cements trends shaped by earlier US Economic Events. Combined with jobless claims, it could generate Bitcoin swings of 2–3% if results sharply diverge from forecasts.
Macro Correlations Keep Crypto on Edge
Correlation metrics show Bitcoin moving increasingly in step with traditional markets such as the Nasdaq and the U.S. dollar, underscoring how macro forces dominate price action. That linkage means US Economic Events now rival crypto-native developments in importance for traders.
Data compiled by MarketWatch indicates that macro releases and policy signals have recently driven sharper price reactions than blockchain-sector news. Analysts say this trend reflects a market environment where liquidity expectations overshadow fundamentals.
If this week’s slate of US Economic Events collectively leans dovish, strategists estimate Bitcoin could rally between 3% and 5% as investors anticipate easier financial conditions. A unified hawkish signal, however, could produce a pullback of similar magnitude.
Outlook
For now, traders are bracing for volatility as US Economic Events dominate the narrative. With policy expectations delicately balanced and correlations elevated, the coming days may determine whether Bitcoin finishes February on stable ground or under renewed pressure. In the current environment, liquidity signals from US Economic Events—not crypto-specific catalysts—remain firmly in the driver’s seat.