Trump meme coin crashes 85% amid feud with Musk as $520M token unlock looms

The Donald Trump meme coin (TRUMP), once hailed as the new barometer of political enthusiasm, has plunged 85% from its January peak. With a staggering $520 million token unlock set for July, analysts warn the embattled cryptocurrency could face further declines, raising questions about its viability as a sentiment tracker for Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.

The president amplified the Trump meme coin narrative this week, sharing a Newsmax article suggesting the token’s performance mirrors public support. Yet market data tells a starkly different story: TRUMP trades at just $10, down from its $73 all-time high, as skepticism grows over its utility beyond speculative gambling.

July’s $520M unlock threatens Trump meme coin stability

Onchain data reveals a ticking time bomb for the Trump meme coin. Tokenomist reports that 73.52% of TRUMP’s total supply—735 million tokens—remains locked, with 50 million (worth $520 million) scheduled for release on July 18. This flood of new tokens could overwhelm demand, accelerating the coin’s downward spiral.

“Large unlocks often trigger sell-offs unless met with proportional buying pressure,” said crypto analyst Mark Johnson. “For the Trump meme coin to rebound, we’d need visible campaign adoption or renewed retail frenzy.”

The Trump family attempted damage control earlier this month. Eric Trump announced World Liberty Financial’s plan to buy a “substantial amount” of TRUMP tokens, but the market shrugged off the news—a red flag for proponents betting on the Trump meme coin as a political thermometer.

Can a meme coin really measure presidential momentum?

Proponents argue the Trump meme coin offers real-time insights into grassroots sentiment. Animoca Brands co-founder Yat Siu acknowledged its initial surge reflected hype but suggested long-term trends might correlate with Trump’s electoral fortunes.

Critics, however, point to the token’s volatility and niche appeal.

“Crypto markets are driven by traders, not voters,” argued Bloomberg’s Emily Parker. “Calling this a ‘sentiment gauge’ is like using casino chips to predict election results.”

The Trump meme coin saga underscores a broader trend: politicians increasingly tapping into crypto culture for fundraising and engagement. Yet with TRUMP’s price in freefall and its ecosystem in “absolute chaos”—as leaked messages from Trump’s team revealed—the experiment risks becoming a cautionary tale.

The road ahead for Trump’s crypto gambit

All eyes now turn to July’s unlock. If investors absorb the new supply without drastic price drops, the Trump meme coin could regain credibility as a fringe political asset. A sell-off, however, might cement its reputation as a failed meme.

Investors believe that the Trump meme coin has etched itself into a bizarre intersection of crypto and politics. Whether it survives as more than a punchline hinges on Trump’s ability to reignite the viral fervor that birthed it.