Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan outlined a $1 million Bitcoin scenario in a memo circulated on March 9, 2026, arguing that BTC could reach seven figures if it captures 17% of the global store-of-value market ($120 trillion by 2036).
Hougan’s analysis projects Bitcoin competing with gold and government bonds as institutional adoption accelerates and investors seek non-sovereign wealth preservation tools. The memo frames Bitcoin not as a speculative asset but as an emerging alternative to traditional safe-haven investments.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Linked to the Global Store-of-Value Market
According to Hougan’s analysis, the future Bitcoin price prediction depends largely on how much of the global store-of-value market the digital asset can capture.
Assets typically considered stores of value include physical commodities such as Gold, government bonds, and other instruments investors use to preserve purchasing power over time.
Hougan estimates that this market currently represents roughly $38 trillion globally. Within that vast financial ecosystem, Bitcoin still accounts for a relatively small share.
The memo proposes that if the broader store-of-value market expands to around $120 trillion over the next decade, and Bitcoin manages to secure roughly 17% of that market, the resulting valuation could push the cryptocurrency close to $1 million per coin.
That projection forms the backbone of Hougan’s long-term Bitcoin price prediction, which frames BTC not merely as a speculative asset but as an emerging alternative to traditional wealth preservation tools.
Such a shift would represent one of the most significant financial transitions of the digital era.
Institutional Adoption Strengthens the Bullish Bitcoin Price Prediction
A key driver behind this optimistic Bitcoin price prediction is the rapid increase in institutional participation within the cryptocurrency market.
Over the past several years, large investment firms, hedge funds, and financial advisors have begun allocating capital to Bitcoin, viewing it as a potential hedge against inflation and currency debasement.
One major catalyst has been the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States. These financial products allow investors to gain direct exposure to Bitcoin through regulated stock market vehicles.
The approval of these ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission significantly expanded access to the crypto market for institutional investors who previously faced regulatory or operational barriers.
With ETFs now available, pension funds, asset managers, and wealth advisors can allocate to Bitcoin more easily within traditional portfolios.
According to Hougan, this growing accessibility has strengthened the long-term Bitcoin price prediction by legitimizing the asset class in the eyes of mainstream finance.
“Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a macro asset,” Hougan noted in the memo, suggesting its role in portfolios may begin to resemble that of gold or other traditional hedges.
Bitcoin’s Role as a Non-Sovereign Asset
Another factor supporting the bullish Bitcoin price prediction is the rising global demand for non-sovereign assets—investments that exist outside the direct control of governments or central banks.
Bitcoin’s decentralized design means no single authority controls its supply or monetary policy. For investors concerned about inflation, currency instability, or geopolitical uncertainty, that independence can be appealing.
As adoption expands, Hougan argues Bitcoin could gradually gain a larger share of the store-of-value market.
This evolving perception is central to the broader Bitcoin price prediction outlined in the memo. Instead of competing solely with speculative tech assets, Bitcoin may increasingly compete with traditional safe-haven investments.
“As I see it, the base case—that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has—leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.
His statement underscores the premise behind the Bitcoin price prediction: continued adoption combined with expanding demand for financial independence could drive Bitcoin’s valuation significantly higher.
Timeline for the $1 Million Bitcoin Price Prediction
Despite the bold forecast, Hougan stops short of assigning a precise date for when Bitcoin might reach the seven-figure mark.
Instead, the memo frames the Bitcoin price prediction as a long-term scenario that could unfold over the next decade if market trends continue.
Several conditions would need to hold true for the projection to materialize. Institutional adoption must keep accelerating, the store-of-value market must grow substantially, and Bitcoin must steadily increase its market share relative to traditional assets.
If those trends align, the Bitcoin price prediction could move from theoretical modeling toward a realistic long-term valuation.
For now, the idea of a $1 million Bitcoin remains speculative—but analysts say the trajectory of institutional interest suggests the conversation is no longer purely hypothetical.
As capital continues flowing into digital assets and financial infrastructure around crypto matures, the next decade may ultimately determine whether this ambitious Bitcoin price prediction becomes reality.
