Bitcoin holds near $86K as traders pause ahead of US GDP release

The global crypto market entered a holding pattern on Tuesday as investors across Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins paused positioning ahead of the highly anticipated US GDP data release, a macroeconomic indicator expected to shape near-term risk appetite across financial markets.

At midday trading in Europe, Bitcoin hovered near the mid-$80,000 range while Ethereum and other large-cap tokens moved within tight intraday bands. Market participants pointed to subdued sentiment, low liquidity and a sharp reduction in leverage as signs that traders are unwilling to make aggressive bets before clarity emerges from the US GDP data print.

Analysts say the current consolidation underscores how closely digital assets have become tied to macroeconomic signals, with the upcoming US GDP data likely to determine whether volatility returns or fades further.

Crypto market pauses before US GDP data

The crypto market’s cautious tone reflects weeks of macro-driven uncertainty that have left prices compressed and conviction thin. Bitcoin remains pinned between key support in the mid-$80,000 region and resistance near the upper-$80,000 range, levels that traders see as critical inflection points once the US GDP data is released.

ETF flows and derivatives positioning remain muted, reinforcing the view that institutional investors are sitting on the sidelines.

According to market observers, upside scenarios for Bitcoin only open if bulls reclaim higher resistance levels following a favorable interpretation of the US GDP data, while downside risks remain contained so long as structural support holds.

Altcoins, meanwhile, continue to trade in narrow ranges under what analysts describe as “extreme fear” sentiment. Low liquidity and modest liquidation volumes suggest that market participants are conserving capital until the macro outlook becomes clearer through the US GDP data.

Ethereum deleveraging signals lower short-term risk

Ethereum has emerged as a key indicator of the broader market’s defensive stance. Data from Alfractal market analytics shows that Ethereum open interest has declined by roughly 50% since August, marking one of the most pronounced deleveraging phases of the year.

“The reduction represents one of the most significant deleveraging periods of the year across cryptocurrency exchanges,” — Alfractal market analytics, in its market report.

The firm said the decline reflects large investors and institutions unwinding leveraged positions across multiple trading venues, a move that has compressed short-term volatility and reduced immediate downside risk. Analysts note that this behavior aligns with broader caution ahead of the US GDP data, as leveraged exposure is often trimmed before major macro releases.

Ethereum prices have fallen nearly 4% over the past week but continue to trade within a narrow range. Technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands have tightened on daily charts, a pattern that typically accompanies periods of low volatility before a decisive move. Market participants widely expect the next breakout attempt to be influenced by how investors interpret the US GDP data.

Exchange data shows broad-based caution

The reduction in open interest is not isolated to a single exchange, suggesting a market-wide pullback rather than platform-specific stress. Binance currently holds the largest share of open interest at $7.64 billion, representing 31% of the total, followed by Gateio, HTX, Bybit and HyperLiquid, according to compiled exchange data.

CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain highlighted a parallel slowdown in spot market activity, noting a sharp drop in sell-side urgency.

“Binance taker sell volume has reached its lowest level since May,” — CryptoOnchain, CryptoQuant contributor.

The 30-day average taker sell volume has declined to around $6.3 billion, signaling that traders are under less pressure to exit positions. Analysts say this restraint further supports the view that market participants are waiting for confirmation from the US GDP data before committing to a directional bias.

While reduced open interest typically dampens short-term price swings, historical data shows that prolonged periods of compression can precede significant moves once a catalyst emerges. In this case, traders widely agree that the US GDP data could serve as that catalyst, shaping expectations around monetary policy, risk assets and capital flows into crypto markets.

As the release approaches, the crypto market remains in pause mode, with price action suggesting that patience, rather than prediction, is the dominant strategy. Whether volatility returns or consolidation deepens will largely depend on how investors read the next US GDP data signal.