Trump’s Odds to Win Election Fall 3% on Polymarket After Harris and Trump Debate Fails to Address Crypto Concerns
Trump's Odds to Win Election Fall 3% on Polymarket After Harris and Trump Debate
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump faced off in their first-ever debate, held on September 10 in Philadelphia. While many topics, including the economy, abortion rights, and immigration, were heavily discussed, one noticeable omission was digital assets. The Harris and Trump debate did not touch on cryptocurrency or blockchain technology, despite growing interest from voters and investors alike.
As the debate progressed, betting markets reflected a notable shift in momentum. On the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, Trump’s odds of securing a victory in the upcoming election dipped by 3%, bringing his chances to 49%. This shift marked the first time that Harris and Trump were neck and neck on the platform, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the 2024 presidential race.
Debate Highlights: Economy, Immigration, and Foreign Policy Take Centre Stage
The Harris and Trump debate was a fiery exchange of ideas, with both candidates outlining their plans for the nation. Harris focused on economic recovery, emphasizing policies aimed at reducing income inequality and improving healthcare access. Trump, on the other hand, touted his record on immigration and foreign policy, while also accusing the Biden administration of harming the economy.
However, throughout the Harris and Trump debate, neither candidate addressed the growing importance of digital assets. This silence came as a surprise to some, given the increasing role of cryptocurrency in the global economy. Harris and Trump debate observers noted that while digital currencies were absent from the discussion, other pressing issues dominated the stage.
Trump’s Plunging Odds on Polymarket
As the Harris and Trump debate unfolded, Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election began to fall on Polymarket, a popular decentralized betting platform. By the end of the debate, Trump’s odds had slipped 3%, leaving him with a 49% chance of victory, according to real-time data. The drop in Trump’s betting odds reflected a shift in public perception, with some analysts attributing the decline to his performance during the debate.
“Harris managed to stay composed and poised throughout the debate, while Trump appeared agitated at times, resorting to false claims,” said a representative from PolitiFact, a renowned fact-checking agency. This contrast may have contributed to the narrowing gap between the two candidates on Polymarket, where both were nearly tied by the end of the night.
Taylor Swift’s Endorsement of Harris Adds Fuel to the Fire
As if the Harris and Trump debate wasn’t already headline-grabbing enough, pop icon Taylor Swift added further excitement. Swift, who boasts 284 million followers on Instagram, publicly endorsed Harris shortly after the debate concluded. Describing Harris as a “steady-handed” leader, Swift’s endorsement carried significant weight, given her massive influence over young voters.
Political analysts are now speculating on the impact of Swift’s endorsement. “Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris could swing a crucial demographic of younger voters who have traditionally been less engaged in the political process,” said a source close to the campaign. While it’s unclear how much sway Swift’s endorsement will have, it certainly adds another layer of intrigue to the Harris and Trump debate aftermath.
The Crypto Market’s Reaction: A Harris Victory Could Spell Trouble
Though cryptocurrency was not addressed in the Harris and Trump debate, the crypto market is watching the election closely. Many investors have tied their hopes for a bull run on Bitcoin and other digital assets to a potential Trump victory. Analysts at Bernstein have gone so far as to predict that Bitcoin could surge to $90,000 by the end of 2024 if Trump wins the election.
“Trump has positioned himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, promising to undo the so-called ‘war on crypto’ waged by the current administration,” said a Bernstein spokesperson in a September 9 note to clients. Trump’s campaign has emphasized support for the industry, with promises to roll back restrictive regulations and make the United States the global capital of cryptocurrency.
However, a Harris victory could trigger the opposite effect. “If Harris wins the election, we could see Bitcoin fall to $30,000, especially if her administration follows in the footsteps of President Biden’s cautious stance towards the crypto market,” the Bernstein spokesperson added. Harris has not publicly outlined her position on crypto, leaving the industry uncertain about her future policies.
Crypto PACs and Political Influence
Despite the absence of crypto discussions in the Harris and Trump debate, the industry has made significant strides in influencing the 2024 elections. Crypto-backed political action committees (PACs) have raised over $202 million from major industry players, spending $93.6 million in the current election cycle. The largest of these PACs, Fairshake, has funnelled $70.8 million into the election, mainly to fund attacks on Democratic candidates.
The growing financial muscle of these crypto PACs demonstrates the industry’s increasing clout in U.S. politics. However, as the Harris and Trump debate showed, digital assets have yet to break through as a mainstream political issue.
National Polls Reflect Tight Race
As the betting markets adjusted following the Harris and Trump debate, national polling data mirrored the close race. A poll from FiveThirtyEight conducted just before the debate showed Harris leading Trump by 2.7 percentage points, with Harris at 47.1% and Trump at 44.9%. The close margin underscores the competitiveness of the 2024 presidential race and the importance of each debate in shaping voter perceptions.
A Debate with Far-Reaching Consequences
The Harris and Trump debate may not have mentioned crypto, but its ramifications will be felt across the political landscape. With Trump’s odds of victory slipping and Harris gaining endorsements from high-profile figures like Taylor Swift, the stage is set for an even more dramatic showdown in the months ahead. As the election race tightens, all eyes will remain on the candidates and their evolving strategies — particularly regarding the future of digital assets.
