crypto sentiment
A wallet attributed to Tyler Winklevoss reduced its Bitcoin holdings by more than 12,000 BTC over the past year, according to Arkham Intelligence, even as the Gemini co-founder publicly argued that bleak crypto sentiment is a contrarian buy signal, and as his exchange cut a quarter of its workforce, exited three major markets, and lost its top three executives within two weeks.
Bitcoin Sales Raise Eyebrows
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham indicates that a wallet attributed to Winklevoss Capital reduced its Bitcoin holdings from roughly 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to fewer than 11,000 BTC by February 2026. The steady decline in exposure has unfolded over 12 months — even as Tyler Winklevoss publicly projected confidence despite worsening crypto sentiment.
The apparent reduction in Bitcoin holdings stands in contrast to his optimistic messaging. While portfolio adjustments are not uncommon, the scale of the reduction has drawn scrutiny at a time when crypto sentiment remains fragile.
Neither Tyler nor Cameron Winklevoss has publicly confirmed the reason behind the BTC sales. Cointelegraph reached out to Gemini for comment regarding the reported Bitcoin reductions and strategic changes but had not received a response by publication.
Gemini’s Financial Reset
Gemini’s latest 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reveals a company navigating a sharp reset.
The exchange expects net revenue between $165 million and $175 million for 2025 — up from $141 million in 2024 — supported by approximately 600,000 monthly transacting users, a 17% year-on-year increase.
However, projected operating expenses have surged dramatically to between $520 million and $530 million, compared to $308 million a year earlier. The widening gap between revenue growth and rising costs highlights the financial strain compounding already weak crypto sentiment.
On Feb. 5, Gemini announced it would cut up to 25% of its workforce and exit operations in the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia to refocus on the United States and Singapore. Less than two weeks later, the company parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer. Cameron Winklevoss is now absorbing additional executive responsibilities.
The leadership overhaul underscores the operational challenges unfolding alongside deteriorating crypto sentiment.
Shrinking Market Share
A Bloomberg report on Sunday cited sources familiar with the matter stating that Gemini’s spot trading market share fell to roughly 0.1% of global spot crypto volume in January, down sharply from 0.6% in June 2025.
The company’s valuation has also reportedly declined from nearly $4 billion following its public listing to under $700 million.
According to Bloomberg, Gemini is pivoting toward launching a new Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated prediction markets platform, alongside expanding custody and credit card services. The company’s SEC filing confirmed the executive shake-up and interim leadership changes.
The restructuring reflects a strategic attempt to adapt in an environment where crypto sentiment remains under sustained pressure.
Bleak Backdrop Across the Market
Gemini’s challenges are unfolding against a broader market downturn marked by unusually negative crypto sentiment.
Bitcoin miners such as Bitdeer have liquidated portions of their BTC treasuries. U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced five consecutive weeks of outflows. Widely watched gauges like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have fallen into “extreme fear” territory.
At the same time, Google search interest for phrases such as “Bitcoin going to zero” has reached levels not seen since 2022 — a reflection of deteriorating crypto sentiment among retail participants.
“Extreme fear phases often produce opportunity,” said Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who recently disclosed that his portfolio remains heavily allocated to Bitcoin alongside gold and oil. Hayes has long argued that compressed crypto sentiment can precede upside volatility.
Long-Term Holders Remain
Despite the downturn in crypto sentiment, several high-profile investors continue to hold or accumulate Bitcoin.
Japan’s Metaplanet has reiterated its BTC acquisition strategy amid market turbulence. Meanwhile, U.S.-based Strategy widely recognized as the largest publicly listed corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 717,131 BTC recently hinted at its 100th Bitcoin purchase.
Macro analyst Lyn Alden has also maintained a long-term Bitcoin position, though she has cautioned that the current environment may produce a grinding consolidation rather than an immediate rally.
These divergent strategies reflect a market split between short-term defensive positioning and long-term conviction — both shaped by prevailing crypto sentiment.
Contrarian Optimism or Strategic Messaging?
Tyler Winklevoss’ public stance suggests he views current crypto sentiment as overly pessimistic. Historically, severe downturns in crypto sentiment have aligned with cyclical lows.
Yet Gemini’s shrinking market share, leadership departures, and reported Bitcoin sales complicate the narrative.
“Markets are reflexive,” said macro investor George Soros in his broader theory of reflexivity — often cited in crypto analysis. When crypto sentiment deteriorates, it can influence both price and strategic decisions.
For Gemini, the coming months will test whether restructuring efforts can stabilize operations and whether improving crypto sentiment can lift trading volumes.
For the broader market, the contrast between executive optimism and measurable retrenchment underscores the uncertainty defining this cycle.
As crypto sentiment hovers near extreme fear levels, investors are watching closely. History shows that such periods can either deepen into prolonged weakness — or set the stage for recovery.
For now, the mood remains cautious. But in crypto markets, sentiment can shift as quickly as price.
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