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US IPO performance trailed the broader equity market in 2025 as uneven debuts from crypto and artificial intelligence companies dragged average returns below the S&P 500, highlighting growing investor selectivity despite a reopening of capital markets.
Data covering all US initial public offerings excluding closed end funds and blank check companies shows that new listings gained 13.9 percent on a weighted average basis, falling short of the S&P 500’s 16 percent annual gain tracked via S&P Dow Jones Indices methodology.
The divergence in US IPO performance emerged during a year when crypto firms returned aggressively to public markets under a more accommodating political and regulatory climate, while artificial intelligence startups tested investor appetite amid rising valuation scrutiny.
Although several large offerings succeeded, weaker performances among mid sized tech listings ultimately pulled down aggregate returns.
Crypto companies accounted for some of the most visible public debuts of the year, reflecting renewed institutional confidence following regulatory clarity and expanded access to digital asset investment products. However, the sector’s contribution to US IPO performance was mixed.
Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group completed a $1.05 billion initial public offering in June after filing its registration under SEC Form S 1 for Circle Internet Group. The company priced its IPO at $31 per share and saw the stock surge by roughly 170 percent on its first trading day, making it one of the strongest crypto related debuts of the year.
That early momentum faded as broader crypto markets cooled in the fourth quarter. As Bitcoin retreated from its October peak, Circle’s share price fell below its first day closing level, underscoring how closely crypto equity valuations remain tied to underlying digital asset prices.
By year end, Circle had surrendered a significant portion of its post IPO gains, contributing to the softer aggregate US IPO performance.
Other crypto listings fared considerably worse. Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, went public in September after submitting disclosures through its SEC registration statement. Although shares briefly climbed above their offering price, the stock declined more than 60 percent by the end of December, placing it among the weakest crypto IPOs of 2025.
Bullish, another digital asset exchange, delivered a more neutral outcome. While its shares doubled intraday during its August debut, the stock retraced most gains by year end, closing near its original offering price. The mixed results reinforced how crypto listings simultaneously boosted deal volume while weighing on overall US IPO performance.
Artificial intelligence companies also played a significant role in shaping US IPO performance, particularly among mid sized offerings. While investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and automation remained strong, several listings struggled to meet lofty expectations once public trading began.
Data center developer Fermi and AI backed expense management platform Navan both underperformed following their respective IPOs, reflecting a broader repricing of growth narratives across the technology sector.
Analysts tracking IPO returns through SEC public offering statistical data noted that many AI companies entered the market with aggressive projections that left little margin for error.
The underperformance of these listings weighed disproportionately on average returns because mid sized deals made up a large share of total offerings. As a result, US IPO performance increasingly diverged between blockbuster listings and smaller technology companies facing higher capital costs and profitability scrutiny.
Market data indicates that deal size played a critical role in determining IPO success during the year. According to aggregate pricing statistics compiled by PwC’s US IPO analytics, offerings valued between $500 million and $1 billion delivered average gains of just 5.6 percent. By contrast, IPOs exceeding $1 billion posted average returns of roughly 20 percent.
“The biggest takeaway is that we’re firmly back in a fundamentals driven market,” said Mike Bellin, US IPO leader at PwC. “Investors have become far more selective, and companies must enter the market with a sharper story and stronger operational direction.”
The contrast was evident among the year’s largest debuts. Medical equipment provider Medline raised $7.2 billion in the biggest IPO of 2025 and saw its stock climb about 40 percent following its mid December listing, as detailed in its SEC prospectus filing.
Conversely, energy exporter Venture Global, which downsized its offering before listing, experienced a steep post IPO decline, reinforcing investor caution toward capital intensive growth stories.
These dynamics underscore why US IPO performance lagged broader benchmarks despite renewed issuance. Capital markets reopened, but only companies with clear earnings visibility and scale were rewarded consistently.
Looking ahead, analysts expect US IPO performance to remain highly bifurcated. Large, profitable issuers with defensible business models are likely to attract strong demand, while speculative crypto and AI startups may face tougher scrutiny.
The 2025 experience suggests that enthusiasm alone is no longer sufficient to sustain post IPO gains. As Bellin noted, selectivity has replaced momentum as the defining feature of the market.
For crypto investors, the lesson is clear. Public listings now amplify sector credibility, but they also expose companies to the same valuation discipline shaping the broader equity landscape.
If macro conditions stabilize and digital asset prices recover, crypto companies could yet improve their contribution to US IPO performance. Until then, fundamentals rather than hype will continue to define winners and losers in the public markets.
