- Trending
- Comments
- Latest
Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund has cautioned that the upcoming Hype token monthly unlock could trigger severe selling pressure with over $11.9 billion worth of tokens scheduled to be released over the next 24 months.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is preparing for what analysts are calling its “Sword of Damocles” moment. The first Hype token monthly unlock begins on Nov. 29, marking the start of a two year vesting schedule that could dramatically impact market stability according to Maelstrom research.
The schedule will release roughly $500 million in tokens each month with Maelstrom estimating that existing buybacks can only absorb about 17% of that supply. That leaves a potential overhang of $410 million from each Hype token monthly unlock, Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert said.
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away,”
Ruppert wrote.
Even new digital asset treasuries (DATs) aren’t enough to counteract the pressure. Nasdaq listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics and its partner Rorschach launched a treasury plan holding $583 million in HYPE tokens and $305 million in cash. While the cash will help accumulate more tokens, Ruppert noted it’s still
“a drop in the bucket compared against the Hype token monthly unlock.”
The warning comes just after Hayes sold all his HYPE tokens reportedly to fund a Ferrari deposit despite previously predicting a 126x rally by 2028. Hayes still maintains that possibility even while acknowledging volatility from the Hype token monthly unlock cycle.
Hyperliquid also faces mounting competition. Rival decentralized exchange Aster backed by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, crossed $2 billion in TVL after launching its APX token. The timing just two months before the first Hype token monthly unlock raised eyebrows within the industry.
“You don’t eat the crypto establishment’s lunch and walk away unchallenged. Business is war,”Ruppert said.
“CZ pushing Aster two months before unlocks? Probably not a coincidence.”
Interestingly, HYPE still surged to a record $59.29 last week hours after Zhao promoted Aster’s native token.
Despite selling his holdings, Hayes reiterated his belief that Hyperliquid could see a 126 fold price increase by 2028. He first made the bold call at the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo citing fiat debasement and the explosive growth of stablecoin markets. His model suggests Hyperliquid’s annualized fees could soar to $255 billion, up from $1.2 billion today even factoring in the risks tied to the Hype token monthly unlock.
Hayes has a track record of headline grabbing forecasts. Earlier this year, he predicted Bitcoin could break $250,000 before 2025’s end if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing. Still for now, all eyes are on the Hype token monthly unlock and whether Hyperliquid can withstand the pressure.
