Bitcoin (BTC) surged past the $65,000 mark in October 2024, sparking optimism for an extended rally. However, BTC selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) has become a critical factor. The question remains: will BTC selling pressure block Bitcoin’s ascent beyond $70,000, or will external conditions propel the cryptocurrency to new heights?
As Bitcoin breached the $65,000 threshold, many expected it to race toward $70,000—a price not seen for three months. But the momentum could be hindered if LTHs decide to liquidate their positions, contributing to increased BTC selling pressure.
Considering LTH Dilemma, Will BTC Selling Pressure Derail Momentum?
LTHs have traditionally been key to Bitcoin’s price stability, but when they start selling, BTC selling pressure intensifies. This increased selling activity could curb Bitcoin’s progress, preventing it from breaking new price ceilings.
The Liveliness indicator, which tracks long-term holder activity, shows signs of heightened liquidation as LTHs begin offloading BTC. As this indicator rises, BTC selling pressure grows, signaling potential market corrections ahead.
Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21.co, shared insights with BeInCrypto on the factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. According to Mena, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will play a pivotal role in determining how much BTC selling pressure impacts market trends.
“One key catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts, which would likely drive a risk-on sentiment across financial markets as investors move capital out of lower-yielding assets like fixed income into riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns,” Mena said.
“Lower interest rates also inject liquidity into the market—a factor that Bitcoin has historically benefited from, given its strong correlation with the global M2 money supply,” Mena explained.
This injection of liquidity could alleviate some of the BTC selling pressure caused by long-term holders, allowing Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum. However, the looming threat remains: if LTHs continue to sell at higher prices, Bitcoin could struggle to breach the $70,000 mark.
Historically, Bitcoin performs well in the fourth quarter. This trend has encouraged investors to hope for a price surge in the final months of 2024. But BTC selling pressure isn’t the only factor influencing Bitcoin’s outlook.
Mena pointed out that external macroeconomic conditions could support Bitcoin’s rise.
“The political landscape is increasingly favorable, with both presidential nominees endorsing crypto innovation in the U.S., signaling a more supportive regulatory environment. This political endorsement could enhance investor confidence and catalyze further capital inflows into the market as regulatory concerns diminish,” Mena noted.
Despite these favorable factors, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on whether BTC selling pressure from LTHs subsides. If selling intensifies, Bitcoin’s progress toward $70,000 could be stifled, forcing prices back to $65,000 or lower.
Can Bitcoin Defend $65,000 Amid Growing BTC Selling Pressure?
As of now, Bitcoin has turned the $65,000 level into support, trading at $65,371. But defending this level is crucial, especially given the increasing BTC selling pressure. If this support crumbles, Bitcoin could lose its bullish momentum, and BTC selling pressure might lead to a deeper pullback.
Bitcoin’s breakout from a symmetrical triangle suggests that a 35% rally could be on the horizon, with potential highs reaching $81,556. However, a more modest outlook places the next major resistance at $70,000. If long-term holders continue to sell, it may be difficult for Bitcoin to break through the $70,000 ceiling.
A combination of strong investor support and favorable macroeconomic conditions will be essential to counteract BTC selling pressure. Without these, Bitcoin may struggle to push higher, potentially retreating below key support levels.
To gauge Bitcoin’s next move, investors should pay close attention to BTC selling pressure and the LTHs’ activities. Several on-chain metrics can help track this selling pressure:
Liveliness Indicator: As mentioned, this tracks the behavior of long-term holders. A rising liveliness score means more selling, indicating growing BTC selling pressure.
Exchange Inflows: When BTC inflows to exchanges increase, it suggests that more holders are preparing to sell. A spike in exchange inflows is a sign of rising BTC selling pressure.
Whale Wallet Movements: Monitoring large wallets can provide insight into when big players are preparing to sell. If whales begin to move assets to exchanges, it could signal an increase in BTC selling pressure.
These indicators, alongside macroeconomic events, will play a major role in determining Bitcoin’s future price direction.
The Path Ahead and Beyond BTC Selling Pressure
Despite the looming threat of BTC selling pressure, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Several experts believe that once the short-term selling subsides, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory.
“Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. The growing adoption, increasing hash rate, and favorable policy outlook make it likely that we’ll see BTC breaking new highs before the year’s end,” said Rachel Li, a cryptocurrency analyst at Cryptonomics.
However, BTC selling pressure cannot be ignored. If LTHs continue to offload their holdings, volatility could rise, leading to temporary setbacks. On the other hand, if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as potential interest rate cuts or a favorable political climate, Bitcoin could overcome these short-term obstacles.
In October 2024, BTC selling pressure from long-term holders has become a pivotal factor in Bitcoin’s price action. While the cryptocurrency is poised for further gains, the potential for increased volatility remains if LTHs continue to sell.
Investors must remain cautious, monitoring key indicators such as the Liveliness indicator and exchange inflows to assess the extent of BTC selling pressure.
Whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000 and sustain its upward trajectory will depend heavily on macroeconomic factors, investor sentiment, and, most importantly, how long-term holders react to the current market conditions. As we move deeper into Q4 2024, it’s clear that BTC selling pressure will be a major theme to watch.
Despite BTC selling pressure being a headwind, long-term investors may find opportunities for growth as favorable economic and political conditions develop. Bitcoin’s strength will rely on its ability to navigate this volatile environment while breaking past key resistance levels. Get more from The Bit Gazette.
