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A crypto trader who made $190 million shorting Bitcoin and Ethereum hours before Trump’s 2018 tariff announcement has sparked fresh insider trading speculation after profiting $56,000 from a Polymarket bet on a CZ pardon — the second time the same wallet has appeared to correctly predict major political-economic events with suspicious timing.
The pattern has reignited debate within the crypto community about whether the trader possesses privileged information, particularly after on-chain analysts linked the recent CZ pardon wager to the same wallet used in the 2018 short position that preceded a sharp market decline.
The trader first became widely known after anticipating the market impact of a presidential tariff announcement in 2018, shorting Bitcoin and Ethereum ahead of a notable price drop.
That event drew speculation about insider knowledge. Years later, the same trader’s decision to place funds on the CZ pardon outcome has triggered similar reactions.
On-chain observers traced activity from a wallet associated with the earlier trades to the recent Polymarket position tied to the CZ pardon. The outcome resulted in a profit of over $56,000, which, while smaller than the trader’s earnings from the Bitcoin short, has still led analysts to question whether the individual had insights into political or legal developments involving the Binance founder.
Some commentators argue that the CZ pardon was already widely anticipated in certain market circles, reducing the significance of the trader’s move. Others continue to contend that the timing of the wager is difficult to dismiss as coincidence.
The CZ pardon bet has renewed debate around whether the trader’s performance reflects exceptional analysis or unfair informational advantage. Some industry observers highlighted discussions that connected a $2 billion investment by Changpeng Zhao into the WLFUSD stablecoin with speculation surrounding the possible CZ pardon.
Jacob King, CEO of Swan Desk, argued that the CZ pardon scenario seemed “obvious,” suggesting that Zhao’s financial activities pointed toward that outcome.
He added that the investment “practically screamed pay-for-pardon,” indicating that he believed the motivations were observable rather than hidden. King disclosed that he personally earned $956,000 betting on the same CZ pardon outcome, suggesting that informed speculation was available to those following developments closely.
Others pointed out commentary from online personalities, including the claim that the trader might “know something others don’t,” though no evidence has surfaced confirming access to confidential details regarding the CZ pardon.
The speculation surrounding the CZ pardon has also revived past claims involving the identity of the trader behind the wallet used in both the 2018 short and the recent Polymarket wager.
Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, has previously been linked to the wallet in question. Jin, however, rejected those claims and reiterated that the wallet does not belong to him.
He clarified that while his firm manages client funds and provides internal research insights, it does not engage in insider trading or market manipulation. Jin’s denial has not fully ended speculation but has underscored that direct attribution of the wallet remains unconfirmed.
As the conversation surrounding the CZ pardon continues, market participants remain divided. For some, the profitability of the Polymarket bet demonstrates strategic market understanding.
For others, the timing and connections involved continue to raise unresolved concerns about fairness and information access within the crypto ecosystem.
