SOL drops 21% from its June peak as whales exit and analysts warn of a potential slide to $40

SOL fell to a yearly low of $60.41 last week as long-term holders shed nearly one million tokens in under a week, DeFi activity on the network dropped 10%, and at least one analyst flagged the possibility of a further decline toward $30 to $40.

The recent downturn has fueled renewed debate around Solana price prediction, particularly as analysts weigh the possibility of a retreat toward the $40 level before the next major bull cycle emerges.

The blockchain’s native token, SOL, traded near $66 on June 9 after briefly falling to around $60.41 during last week’s broader crypto market decline. A combination of whale selling, shrinking decentralized finance activity, and weakening investor sentiment has erased months of gains and placed the asset under considerable pressure.

While long-term believers continue to point toward future network upgrades and ecosystem development, short-term indicators suggest the market remains firmly on the defensive.

Whale selling and weakening ecosystem activity pressure SOL

One of the biggest contributors to the recent decline has been aggressive selling from long-term holders.

Blockchain data indicates that addresses holding SOL for at least 155 days significantly reduced their exposure over the first week of June. Holdings among these investors dropped from approximately 3.27 million SOL on May 31 to 2.36 million SOL by June 6, signaling a substantial shift in sentiment among seasoned market participants.

At the same time, activity throughout the Solana ecosystem has cooled noticeably.

Decentralized finance participation weakened during the week, with total value locked across DeFi protocols declining by nearly 10%. The network also lost market share in decentralized exchange trading, with its portion of total DEX volume falling from 30.4% to 22.6%.

The slowdown comes as speculative interest in memecoins continues to fade. Throughout much of the previous cycle, memecoin trading generated significant network activity and transaction demand for Solana. As that trend cools, one of the blockchain’s strongest growth engines has begun losing momentum.

Additional selling pressure emerged from corporate treasury activity.

On June 9, SOL Strategies disclosed the sale of 65,001 SOL at an average price of CAD$87.88 per token, generating approximately CAD$5.75 million. The proceeds were used to reduce company debt. The transaction marked the firm’s first publicly reported sale of SOL since September 2025 and occurred shortly before the token tested fresh yearly lows.

The broader macroeconomic backdrop has offered little relief. Uncertainty surrounding interest-rate expectations, declining institutional appetite for altcoins, and capital rotation into lower-risk assets have combined to create a challenging environment for speculative digital assets.

These developments continue to shape the latest Solana price prediction models circulating among traders and analysts.

Technical indicators suggest further downside risk

From a chart perspective, Solana’s structure has weakened considerably.

The weekly timeframe shows SOL trading below the key 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around $74 after breaking beneath a descending channel that had guided price action for much of 2026.

Perhaps more importantly, the asset is now approaching a long-term trendline that has connected major cycle lows since 2021. A decisive breakdown beneath this support could significantly alter market expectations.

Many analysts believe the current zone between $60 and $65 represents a crucial battleground.

Crypto analyst Cyclop recently highlighted the possibility of a much deeper decline.

“Waiting for a bounce from trendline. We could well hit even $30-$40 soon.”

Despite the warning, the analyst noted that he had accumulated part of a long-term position near the current levels while maintaining a bullish outlook for later stages of the market cycle.

Momentum indicators continue to favor sellers.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains in negative territory near -0.17, reflecting persistent capital outflows. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish across both daily and weekly timeframes. The weekly Stochastic RSI has also rolled over after rejecting overbought conditions, further reinforcing downside risks.

These signals have become central to many current Solana price prediction discussions, particularly among technical traders evaluating support levels below $60.

Why the $40 level is becoming a key target

If Solana fails to defend its current support range, analysts see relatively limited support until the $40-$30 region.

That area aligns with long-term trendline support and previous accumulation zones that attracted buyers during earlier market cycles.

A move toward $40 would represent a significant decline from current levels but would not necessarily invalidate the broader long-term uptrend that began following the 2022 bear market.

For bullish momentum to return, SOL would first need to reclaim several key resistance levels.

The initial hurdle sits near $74, while the next major challenge lies within the $90-$100 range, where multiple recovery attempts failed during the first half of 2026.

Until those levels are recovered, most technical analysts remain cautious in their Solana price prediction outlook.

Network upgrades could strengthen long-term outlook

Despite near-term weakness, several fundamental developments continue supporting the longer-term investment thesis.

Solana recently rolled out native subscription functionality and spending allowances, expanding recurring payment capabilities for developers, businesses, and users building on the network.

Attention is also increasingly focused on major infrastructure upgrades scheduled for implementation.

Among the most anticipated developments are the Alpenglow consensus overhaul and the Firedancer validator client. Both initiatives are designed to improve network efficiency, increase scalability, and enhance transaction finality.

Industry participants view these upgrades as potentially transformative for Solana’s next phase of growth.

Notably, executives at the Solana Foundation have repeatedly emphasized the importance of performance improvements as the network seeks to support larger-scale adoption.

Even so, investors remain cautious.

A break below June’s low near $60 could trigger another wave of liquidation and significantly increase the probability outlined in many bearish Solana price prediction scenarios. Continued weakness in crypto fund flows, geopolitical uncertainty, or further ecosystem-related selling could accelerate the decline.

For now, the market remains divided. Bulls point to expanding infrastructure, improving utility, and long-term adoption potential. Bears focus on deteriorating technical conditions and weakening demand metrics.

As a result, the next few weeks may prove decisive for the latest Solana price prediction, with the $60 support zone standing as the most important level on the chart. Whether buyers can defend it could determine if SOL stabilizes ahead of the next bull market—or revisits $40 before the recovery begins.