Over the past week, the BTC price movement has been confined between 101,500 and 105,000, failing to breach the crucial resistance level. Analysts suggest this consolidation phase may persist until a significant catalyst emerges.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp reveals that Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $105,000 mark but lacks the momentum for a sustained breakout. Swissblock, an on-chain analytics firm, noted in a May 16 X post:
“BTCisstuckinanarrowing101.5K–$104K range. With the weekend ahead, resolution will likely be delayed unless we get a Friday break.”
This lack of upward BTC price movement comes despite Bitcoin maintaining its position above $100,000 for over a week, a psychologically significant support level.
Traders turn cautious as fear creeps in
Market intelligence firm Santiment observed a shift in trader sentiment, with slight bearishness emerging due to the prolonged consolidation. However, historical trends suggest that such fear often precedes upward BTC price movement.
“Retail traders are beginning to show impatience, which historically is a bullish sign for prices,” Santiment stated in an X post.
The firm also highlighted that social volume around Bitcoin remains high, indicating sustained interest despite the price stagnation.
Liquidity clusters suppress upward BTC price movement
A deeper analysis by Material Indicators reveals that large sell orders between 105,000 and 110,000 on Binance’s order book are acting as a barrier. These liquidity clusters suggest institutional resistance to higher prices in the short term.
“Unless we have a serious catalyst, I’m not expecting to see a sustainable breakout to the all-time high territory until BTC has a legit support test at $100,000,” Material Indicators noted.
The firm also warned traders to watch the 98,000–100,000 range as a critical support zone. A breakdown below this level could trigger further declines.
Key levels to watch for the next breakout
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that the $93,000 mark, where the recent rally began, remains a crucial level.
“The main level to look out for would be local highs above 106,000andbelowallthewaydownto93,000, which was the start of the recent move.”
Meanwhile, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe identified $98,000 as a pivotal support area:
“This is a crucial area to hold on to for continuation upward. If lost, we could see a deeper correction.”
Long-term bullish signals remain intact
Despite the short-term consolidation, technical indicators still favor a bullish outlook. The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have formed a golden cross, signaling strong upward momentum in the macro trend.
Additionally, historical data suggests that Bitcoin often experiences sharp rallies after prolonged consolidation phases. Analysts at Glassnode noted that long-term holders continue accumulating, reducing available supply and increasing upward pressure.
External factors influencing BTC price movement
Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors remain critical for the BTC price movement. Recent U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy shifts have contributed to market uncertainty.
“Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets has increased,” said Alex Krüger, an independent economist. “Any hawkish Fed comments could delay the next leg up.”
Meanwhile, institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing consistent demand. This institutional interest could serve as a catalyst for the next breakout.
Patience required as market awaits next trigger
The current BTC price movement reflects a market in wait-and-see mode. While bullish fundamentals remain intact, the lack of a decisive catalyst has kept Bitcoin range-bound. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, along with macroeconomic developments, for the next major move.
As Material Indicators summarized:
“Be prepared for a support test in the 98,000–100,000 range, but beware of short squeezes and bull traps until that happens.”
With Bitcoin’s halving effects still unfolding and institutional adoption growing, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, but short-term volatility is far from over.
