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Blockchain.com and Binance US are seeking US regulatory approval to offer prediction markets, as crypto exchanges look for revenue beyond spot trading, which has fallen 18% while volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi have jumped more than 300% this year.
Blockchain.com applied to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on October 13 for registration as a Futures Commission Merchant and designation as a Designated Contract Market, according to the company. The Financial Times reports Binance US is pursuing a similar route.
The appeal of prediction markets has grown as traders seek opportunities tied to developments beyond cryptocurrency prices. These platforms allow eligible participants to trade contracts linked to potential outcomes involving sports, elections, economic indicators and other real-world events.
Figures cited by the Financial Times show that combined trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi climbed from $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September 2026. That represents an increase of more than 300% over the period.
Meanwhile, spot cryptocurrency trading volumes reportedly declined by 18%. The contrast highlights why exchanges are exploring business lines that may remain active even when conventional crypto trading loses momentum.
The downturn has also affected major digital assets. According to the report, Bitcoin fell 28% and Ethereum dropped 42% over the preceding 12 months, while XRP and Solana also suffered substantial losses. Publicly traded companies in the sector have faced pressure, adding to the incentive to diversify.
Patrick Moley, a senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, told the Financial Times that retail trading platforms were broadening their offerings to retain existing customers and attract new ones during periods of subdued cryptocurrency activity.
Robinhood provides a notable example of the potential financial opportunity. The brokerage generated $156 million in revenue from event contracts during the second quarter of 2026, compared with $100 million from cryptocurrency transactions, according to figures reported by The Block. Robinhood also disclosed that 13.6 billion event contracts were traded on its platform during the quarter.
These figures suggest that event-based trading can become a significant business in its own right rather than simply an additional feature attached to a crypto exchange.
Crypto.com is pursuing growth through partnerships and a dedicated event-contract platform, OG.com. In September, Robinhood announced a multiyear agreement to route selected football contracts through Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure.
The arrangement also includes equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com, with the investments priced in line with valuations established through an earlier investment in Crypto.com Group. The companies said the partnership would expand the range of contracts available to eligible Robinhood customers.
“Routing event contracts to multiple venues helps create a stronger, more diverse and resilient marketplace,” said JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of Futures and Prediction Markets, in the company’s September 8 announcement.
The deal illustrates how companies can compete for customers without necessarily operating every part of the trading infrastructure themselves.
For cryptocurrency exchanges, prediction markets offer a potential way to increase engagement, diversify transaction-related revenue and keep users active during quieter periods for digital assets. The commercial opportunity, however, depends on customer demand, product availability and the regulatory framework governing each offering.
Despite the growth, the sector faces significant legal uncertainty in the United States. A central dispute concerns whether certain sports-related event contracts should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or as gambling products subject to state gaming laws.
On October 7, the Michigan Gaming Control Board announced that Coinbase had agreed to stop offering new sports-related event contracts to customers in the state by October 10 and close remaining positions by that deadline. The agreement did not resolve the underlying legal dispute.
“Operators are halting these activities because they face significant legal consequences for continuing to offer them in our state,” Michigan Gaming Control Board Executive Director Henry Williams said in the agency’s announcement.
The disagreement could shape how platforms distribute sports-related contracts and where customers can access them. Other operators, including Kalshi and Robinhood, have also faced regulatory challenges in Michigan.
The United Kingdom presents a different obstacle: retail access to these products is restricted under the country’s regulatory approach, which classifies relevant offerings as binary options.
As Blockchain.com and Binance US pursue their plans, the industry’s challenge will be balancing rapid commercial expansion with regulatory compliance. The surge in prediction markets has created an attractive new opportunity for crypto businesses, but sustainable growth will depend on whether operators can secure the necessary approvals and maintain access to customers across different jurisdictions.
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